about the 10.000 years assumption: that is only used to calculate a high estimate of clean meat R&D. I’m not so worried if that is an overstimate.
My calculation assumes indeed no diminishing returns for clean meat R&D. I don’t expect diminishing returns in the short run, when so much need to be researched. In my model, the decreasing neglectedness accounts for diminishing returns. When funding and investments by others increses to 1 billion dollars, the cost-effectiveness decreases with a factor 10. Anyway, the point is that clean meat R&D is a good opportunity in the short run, for the next 10 or 20 years.
ACE’s CEA methodology is different indeed, but Im not convinced that it is really incomparable to mine. A basic assumption is that ACE’s top charities who are not involved in clean meat (i.e. the charities except Good Food Institute), are not capable of eliminating animal farming before clean meat can.
The CEA of leafleting could be an overestimate indeed. The study that I did, was not randomized controlled.
About missing the impact of animal advocacy: I’m sceptical about the possibility of attitudinal change: just like the expectations of leafleting were too high (not strong evidence of behavioral change), the expectations about other animal rights advocacy could be too high as well. The case for clean meat is different: in the past we already have striking examples of animals being replaced by more than 90% within 50 years due to new technologies (e.g. horses → cars, whale oil → kerosene, messenger pigeons → telephone/telegraph, sheep wool → synthetic fibers, animal insulin → human recombinant DNA insulin, rabbit skin tests for cosmetics → human skin tissueand perhaps now movie animals → CGI animals). These transitions were independent from animal rights campaigning.
I do see much room left for attitudinal change, in particular moral circle expansion (see e.g. https://stijnbruers.wordpress.com/2020/03/17/consider-remarkable-animal-capabilities-to-expand-the-moral-circle/), but perhaps after 10 or 20 years, when clean meat is already well on track and lost its opportunity for more funding (and returns diminished). Also, once people automatically decrease their animal meat consumption, they suffer less from cognitive dissonance, which means attitudinal change might become easier.
I’m skeptical about the welfare reforms strategy. For me to be indifferent between the current welfare reforms and an X% reduction of animal farming, I think X is very low, probably lower than 10%. For example cage free eggs: I don’t believe that, if all battery cages were abolished and chickens had free range, that count for more than a 10% improvement in welfare, and probably a 0% in animal rights. Given moral uncertainty, I put some probability on a rights-based ethic where animals should not be used as merely a means. Also, some of the future possible welfare reforms could be so difficult, that clean meat (or animal-free eggs) will arrive sooner, making the welfare reforms campaigns obsolete. Also, welfare campaigns are also much less neglected than clean meat R&D.
Thanks
about the 10.000 years assumption: that is only used to calculate a high estimate of clean meat R&D. I’m not so worried if that is an overstimate.
My calculation assumes indeed no diminishing returns for clean meat R&D. I don’t expect diminishing returns in the short run, when so much need to be researched. In my model, the decreasing neglectedness accounts for diminishing returns. When funding and investments by others increses to 1 billion dollars, the cost-effectiveness decreases with a factor 10. Anyway, the point is that clean meat R&D is a good opportunity in the short run, for the next 10 or 20 years.
ACE’s CEA methodology is different indeed, but Im not convinced that it is really incomparable to mine. A basic assumption is that ACE’s top charities who are not involved in clean meat (i.e. the charities except Good Food Institute), are not capable of eliminating animal farming before clean meat can.
The CEA of leafleting could be an overestimate indeed. The study that I did, was not randomized controlled.
About missing the impact of animal advocacy: I’m sceptical about the possibility of attitudinal change: just like the expectations of leafleting were too high (not strong evidence of behavioral change), the expectations about other animal rights advocacy could be too high as well. The case for clean meat is different: in the past we already have striking examples of animals being replaced by more than 90% within 50 years due to new technologies (e.g. horses → cars, whale oil → kerosene, messenger pigeons → telephone/telegraph, sheep wool → synthetic fibers, animal insulin → human recombinant DNA insulin, rabbit skin tests for cosmetics → human skin tissueand perhaps now movie animals → CGI animals). These transitions were independent from animal rights campaigning.
I do see much room left for attitudinal change, in particular moral circle expansion (see e.g. https://stijnbruers.wordpress.com/2020/03/17/consider-remarkable-animal-capabilities-to-expand-the-moral-circle/), but perhaps after 10 or 20 years, when clean meat is already well on track and lost its opportunity for more funding (and returns diminished). Also, once people automatically decrease their animal meat consumption, they suffer less from cognitive dissonance, which means attitudinal change might become easier.
I’m skeptical about the welfare reforms strategy. For me to be indifferent between the current welfare reforms and an X% reduction of animal farming, I think X is very low, probably lower than 10%. For example cage free eggs: I don’t believe that, if all battery cages were abolished and chickens had free range, that count for more than a 10% improvement in welfare, and probably a 0% in animal rights. Given moral uncertainty, I put some probability on a rights-based ethic where animals should not be used as merely a means. Also, some of the future possible welfare reforms could be so difficult, that clean meat (or animal-free eggs) will arrive sooner, making the welfare reforms campaigns obsolete. Also, welfare campaigns are also much less neglected than clean meat R&D.