As sparing 1 farm animal corresponds with reducing 0,1 ton CO2e, this one euro funding also means a reduction of 10 ton CO2e, the same order of magnitude as the emission by an average human in one year. Used as carbon offsetting, cell-based meat R&D has a price around 0,1 euro per ton CO2e averted. This is much lower than most other carbon offsetting mechanisms.
In your model, cell-based meat replaces animal-based meat in 100 years, thus each euro invested now will mean a reduction of 10 ton of CO2e in 100 years. I’d argue that one ton of CO2 now is worth way more than one ton of CO2 in 100 years.
How much more? One way to compare the two would be to imagine what would happen if, instead of spending your one euro now, you were to save it, and spend it in 100 years. With an annual interest rate of 5%, you would get 130 euros in 100 years, which you could then spend on the best carbon offsetting mechanism at the time.
My point is, in term of CO2 averted, it’s probably more effective to save money and spend it in the future than to fund cell-based meat R&D
PS : To be fair, it’s way better if many are willing to fund cell-based meat R&D too. If the funding goes from 10^8 up to 10^9, we only have to wait for ten years for the cell-based meat, and therefore the saving strategy isn’t as good anymore.
I partially agree. In my second, high estimate model, cell-based meat arrives in 100 years. However, it more likely arrives sooner, e.g. in 2030. From then on, carbon offsetting starts to count. I agree that we should discount future emission reductions, due to the urgency of the climate problem and the possibility of early threshold values in the climate system being passed. But 10 years is not so long.
In your model, cell-based meat replaces animal-based meat in 100 years, thus each euro invested now will mean a reduction of 10 ton of CO2e in 100 years. I’d argue that one ton of CO2 now is worth way more than one ton of CO2 in 100 years.
How much more? One way to compare the two would be to imagine what would happen if, instead of spending your one euro now, you were to save it, and spend it in 100 years. With an annual interest rate of 5%, you would get 130 euros in 100 years, which you could then spend on the best carbon offsetting mechanism at the time.
My point is, in term of CO2 averted, it’s probably more effective to save money and spend it in the future than to fund cell-based meat R&D
PS : To be fair, it’s way better if many are willing to fund cell-based meat R&D too. If the funding goes from 10^8 up to 10^9, we only have to wait for ten years for the cell-based meat, and therefore the saving strategy isn’t as good anymore.
I partially agree. In my second, high estimate model, cell-based meat arrives in 100 years. However, it more likely arrives sooner, e.g. in 2030. From then on, carbon offsetting starts to count. I agree that we should discount future emission reductions, due to the urgency of the climate problem and the possibility of early threshold values in the climate system being passed. But 10 years is not so long.