You could think about a random normal distribution of estimated-value clustered around the true value of the action. The more actors (estimated-values you draw from the normal distribution) the more likely you are to get an outlier who thinks the value is positive when it is actually negative.
Additionally, the people willing to act unilaterally are more likely to have positively biased estimates of the value of the action:
As you noted, some curse arguments are symmetric, in the sense that they also provide reason to expect unilateralists to do more good. Notably, the bias above is asymmetric; it provides a reason to expect unilateralists to do less good, with no corresponding reason to expect unilateralists to do more good.
@JakubK I think that your interpretation of OP’s quote is somewhat less useful, in the sense that it only retroactively explains a behavior of a “unilateralist”—i.e. an actor that had already made a decision. I find that for the purposes of a generic actor, it has less utility to ask themselves “Am I (acting as) a unilateralist?” instead of “How many other actors are there capable of, yet not acting?”
Beside the abstracntess of it, I see that there is actually quite some overlap with what you would call “unilateralists” and simply “courageous actors”. This is because there usually is what I would refer to as an “activation energy” for actions to be made, which is basically a bias where the majority of actors are more likely not to act when the true value of an action is net neutral or slightly positive. And precisely in the scenario where the true value of an action is only slightly (but significantly) positive, you would then need a courageous actor to “overcome the activation energy” and do the right thing.
I’m not sure if activation energy is the right term, but it is an observed phenomenon in ethics, see the comparison of the Fat Man with the classical Trolley Switch scenario. To sum it up, I think that looking at the unilateralist’s curse simply as a statistical phenomenon is fundamentally wrong, and one must include moral dimensions in deciding whether to take the action no one has taken despite having the option to. That said, the general advice in the post like information sharing etc. are indeed helpful and applicable.
Additionally, the people willing to act unilaterally are more likely to have positively biased estimates of the value of the action:
P(estimate > truth|unilateralist)>P(estimate > truth)As you noted, some curse arguments are symmetric, in the sense that they also provide reason to expect unilateralists to do more good. Notably, the bias above is asymmetric; it provides a reason to expect unilateralists to do less good, with no corresponding reason to expect unilateralists to do more good.
@JakubK I think that your interpretation of OP’s quote is somewhat less useful, in the sense that it only retroactively explains a behavior of a “unilateralist”—i.e. an actor that had already made a decision. I find that for the purposes of a generic actor, it has less utility to ask themselves “Am I (acting as) a unilateralist?” instead of “How many other actors are there capable of, yet not acting?”
Beside the abstracntess of it, I see that there is actually quite some overlap with what you would call “unilateralists” and simply “courageous actors”. This is because there usually is what I would refer to as an “activation energy” for actions to be made, which is basically a bias where the majority of actors are more likely not to act when the true value of an action is net neutral or slightly positive. And precisely in the scenario where the true value of an action is only slightly (but significantly) positive, you would then need a courageous actor to “overcome the activation energy” and do the right thing.
I’m not sure if activation energy is the right term, but it is an observed phenomenon in ethics, see the comparison of the Fat Man with the classical Trolley Switch scenario. To sum it up, I think that looking at the unilateralist’s curse simply as a statistical phenomenon is fundamentally wrong, and one must include moral dimensions in deciding whether to take the action no one has taken despite having the option to. That said, the general advice in the post like information sharing etc. are indeed helpful and applicable.