#1 seems like a bigger deal if the optimal strategy is to do some startup work, then discontinue if you’re not in the top 2 percent as evaluated by YC (because that assessment heavily updates your EV). Presumably there is some cost there—at a minimum, the discontinuers could have been earning-to-give at a higher-paying job during that time. So I think the analysis could critically hinge on how accurately one can gauge their odds of being in the top 2 percent in a low-cost manner.
#1 seems like a bigger deal if the optimal strategy is to do some startup work, then discontinue if you’re not in the top 2 percent as evaluated by YC (because that assessment heavily updates your EV). Presumably there is some cost there—at a minimum, the discontinuers could have been earning-to-give at a higher-paying job during that time. So I think the analysis could critically hinge on how accurately one can gauge their odds of being in the top 2 percent in a low-cost manner.