Just a note here as the author of that lobbying post you cite: the CEA including the 2.5% change in chance of success is intended to be illustrative — well, conservative, but it’s based on nothing more than a rough sense of effect magnitude from having read all those studies for the lit review. The specific figures included in the CEA are very rough. As Stephen Clare pointed out in the comments, it’s also probably not realistic to have modeled that is normal on the [0,5] 95% CI.
Just a note here as the author of that lobbying post you cite: the CEA including the 2.5% change in chance of success is intended to be illustrative — well, conservative, but it’s based on nothing more than a rough sense of effect magnitude from having read all those studies for the lit review. The specific figures included in the CEA are very rough. As Stephen Clare pointed out in the comments, it’s also probably not realistic to have modeled that is normal on the [0,5] 95% CI.
Thanks for the clarification!