Hi Ben, happy to justify this. I was responsible for the alternate estimate of 10%-17.5%
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These numbers here are consistent with our other estimates of policy change. Other estimates were easier (but not easy) to justify as they were in better evidenced areas and tended to range between 5% and 40% (see 2022 ideas here). Areas with the best data were road safety policy, where we looked at looked at 84 case studies finding a 48% chance of policy success, and food fortification policy, where we looked at 62 case studies (in Annex) with a 47% chance of success – we scaled these numbers downwards but they are not low.
Other EA estimates are also in this ballpark – e.g. Nuno’s estimates on OpenPhil criminal justice reform are in the same ball park and give 7-50% and 1-10% chance of policy change success. Also personal experience suggests reasonably high numbers too – CE has one long-running policy charity (LEEP) and it seems to have been pretty successful, driving policy change within 6 months. My own experience was also fairly successful. I think this allows us to put relatively high priors on policy change of 5 to 20 percentage points increase.
That said my 7.5 percentage points increase here was guesswork. I wish I had more time to look into it but it was driven by intuitions based of case studies and experience, that is mostly not US based. I would be open to hearing from experienced US policy advocates that it is too high (or too low).
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On the articles you link to:
The informational lobbying post estimates that lobbying raises the chance of policy change from “very low” to 2.5%. I think this is consistent with a raise from 10% to 17.5%.
My view on policy (based on working in the field) is that the most impact per $ comes when advocating for a policy issue that might just happen anyway – e.g. advocating for something where the political door is ajar and it just needs a nudge. I think moving the needle from 15%-40% is about as easy as moving the needle from 1%-5%.
I am unfamiliar with the LSE study and will have to have a look at it. Maybe it will lead me to be more pessimistic.
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Note 1: I work for CE. Note 2: I think policy change in the animals welfare space is a bit different so assume I am not talking about animal welfare work in any of the above.
Hi Ben, happy to justify this. I was responsible for the alternate estimate of 10%-17.5%
– –
These numbers here are consistent with our other estimates of policy change. Other estimates were easier (but not easy) to justify as they were in better evidenced areas and tended to range between 5% and 40% (see 2022 ideas here). Areas with the best data were road safety policy, where we looked at looked at 84 case studies finding a 48% chance of policy success, and food fortification policy, where we looked at 62 case studies (in Annex) with a 47% chance of success – we scaled these numbers downwards but they are not low.
Other EA estimates are also in this ballpark – e.g. Nuno’s estimates on OpenPhil criminal justice reform are in the same ball park and give 7-50% and 1-10% chance of policy change success. Also personal experience suggests reasonably high numbers too – CE has one long-running policy charity (LEEP) and it seems to have been pretty successful, driving policy change within 6 months. My own experience was also fairly successful. I think this allows us to put relatively high priors on policy change of 5 to 20 percentage points increase.
That said my 7.5 percentage points increase here was guesswork. I wish I had more time to look into it but it was driven by intuitions based of case studies and experience, that is mostly not US based. I would be open to hearing from experienced US policy advocates that it is too high (or too low).
– –
On the articles you link to:
The informational lobbying post estimates that lobbying raises the chance of policy change from “very low” to 2.5%. I think this is consistent with a raise from 10% to 17.5%.
My view on policy (based on working in the field) is that the most impact per $ comes when advocating for a policy issue that might just happen anyway – e.g. advocating for something where the political door is ajar and it just needs a nudge. I think moving the needle from 15%-40% is about as easy as moving the needle from 1%-5%.
I am unfamiliar with the LSE study and will have to have a look at it. Maybe it will lead me to be more pessimistic.
– –
Note 1: I work for CE. Note 2: I think policy change in the animals welfare space is a bit different so assume I am not talking about animal welfare work in any of the above.
That all makes sense and seems thorough, thanks!