But if you were to donate $1,000 to CHAI, then either:
1. You expand CHAI’s available funding by $1,000. The cost-effectiveness of this grant should be basically the same as the final $1,000 that Open Philanthropy donated.
If Open Phil’s judgement is good enough, and Open Phil was not holding back because they believed CHAI marginal cost-effectiveness would drop below that of their marginal grantee, and instead for some other reason(s), e.g. donor coordination, the public support test, reducing dependence on Open Phil, then wouldn’t this actually normally beat their final $1,000? So, in expectation, we can plausibly beat Open Phil’s final $1,000 by topping up their grantees (assuming case 2 goes through well enough).
If Open Phil makes individual donor recommendations (and in the past, they’ve written why they haven’t fully funded a given opportunity), then we can just follow those. It looks like they haven’t been recommending the most well-known large EA organizations at all, though. Does Open Phil think they’re fully funding these organizations (anticipating what those orgs will raise through other means)? If so, we should perhaps expect to be in case 2 almost all of the time.
If Open Phil’s judgement is good enough, and Open Phil was not holding back because they believed CHAI marginal cost-effectiveness would drop below that of their marginal grantee, and instead for some other reason(s), e.g. donor coordination, the public support test, reducing dependence on Open Phil, then wouldn’t this actually normally beat their final $1,000? So, in expectation, we can plausibly beat Open Phil’s final $1,000 by topping up their grantees (assuming case 2 goes through well enough).
If Open Phil makes individual donor recommendations (and in the past, they’ve written why they haven’t fully funded a given opportunity), then we can just follow those. It looks like they haven’t been recommending the most well-known large EA organizations at all, though. Does Open Phil think they’re fully funding these organizations (anticipating what those orgs will raise through other means)? If so, we should perhaps expect to be in case 2 almost all of the time.
Good point—seems plausible that it’s a little more effective than their final $1000.