1. “But the IEA estimates account for lack of progress in these sectors, so they don’t affect the central point of our piece. “
This is important and possibly a bit confusing in the piece, the 2.5-3 degree world is now the default on fairly pessimistic assumptions about further progress.
2. Also, another thing that the estimates do not reflect are the effects of recent net-zero commitments + uptick in cleantech investment, both public and private. If the current surge in cleantech spending persists, we should expect effects in technologies beyond the usual suspects of wind/solar/electric cars/light bulbs. I think we can probably lock-in a low-carbon trajectory this decade if we are able to (a) maintain/increase momentum on clean energy innovation, (b) make sure resources for energy innovation are better spent, and (c) we manage to avoid massive emissions lock-in of new long-lived infrastructure.
3. I would also say it is not quite correct that we are not making progress on hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as industry, aviation, and agriculture. While these are the sectors to worry about most and those where a trajectory change isn’t guaranteed (unlike, say, electrification of light duty transport), Bill Gates + Breakthrough Energy + the tech community more broadly have stepped up their game significantly, also on those technologies (e.g. alternative proteins are arguably booming as a field and Gates & Breakthrough Energy have succeeded in putting those techs a lot more on the mind of the public).
(Sorry for lack of sourcing, this is quick, but I will outline all of those things more publicly and documented fairly soon)
1. “But the IEA estimates account for lack of progress in these sectors, so they don’t affect the central point of our piece. “
This is important and possibly a bit confusing in the piece, the 2.5-3 degree world is now the default on fairly pessimistic assumptions about further progress.
2. Also, another thing that the estimates do not reflect are the effects of recent net-zero commitments + uptick in cleantech investment, both public and private. If the current surge in cleantech spending persists, we should expect effects in technologies beyond the usual suspects of wind/solar/electric cars/light bulbs. I think we can probably lock-in a low-carbon trajectory this decade if we are able to (a) maintain/increase momentum on clean energy innovation, (b) make sure resources for energy innovation are better spent, and (c) we manage to avoid massive emissions lock-in of new long-lived infrastructure.
3. I would also say it is not quite correct that we are not making progress on hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as industry, aviation, and agriculture. While these are the sectors to worry about most and those where a trajectory change isn’t guaranteed (unlike, say, electrification of light duty transport), Bill Gates + Breakthrough Energy + the tech community more broadly have stepped up their game significantly, also on those technologies (e.g. alternative proteins are arguably booming as a field and Gates & Breakthrough Energy have succeeded in putting those techs a lot more on the mind of the public).
(Sorry for lack of sourcing, this is quick, but I will outline all of those things more publicly and documented fairly soon)