I agree that the impact would not go far beyond the arrival of AGI. That was part of the reason I chose a 40 year time frame, to make the argument less controversial for people who think the arrival of AGI is very probable this century.
However, I think the arrival of AGI this century is just too extreme of an outcome relative to all of our history to have more than a 30% confidence in. So I still think over 70% of the long-term value of growth (positive or negative) would be realized in expectation.
In response to your three scenarios for the impacts of growth on AGI, I think growth in the United States or China is most likely to lead to (1). However, the kind of growth I would advocate for, in low income countries, would be more (3). Although there is a good chance that the benefits of AGI will be captured by developed nations, and low income countries will benefit from any growth they can get now even in a world of AGI.
I agree that the impact would not go far beyond the arrival of AGI. That was part of the reason I chose a 40 year time frame, to make the argument less controversial for people who think the arrival of AGI is very probable this century.
However, I think the arrival of AGI this century is just too extreme of an outcome relative to all of our history to have more than a 30% confidence in. So I still think over 70% of the long-term value of growth (positive or negative) would be realized in expectation.
In response to your three scenarios for the impacts of growth on AGI, I think growth in the United States or China is most likely to lead to (1). However, the kind of growth I would advocate for, in low income countries, would be more (3). Although there is a good chance that the benefits of AGI will be captured by developed nations, and low income countries will benefit from any growth they can get now even in a world of AGI.