I was recently at a dinner full of AI scientists, some of them very skeptical about the whole long-term safety problem, who unanimously professed that they expect a fast takeoff—I’m not sure yet how to square this with the fact that Bostrom’s survey showed fast takeoff was a minority position.
Perhaps the first of them to voice a position on the matter expected a fast takeoff and was held in high regard by the others, so they followed along, having not previously thought about it?
Perhaps the first of them to voice a position on the matter expected a fast takeoff and was held in high regard by the others, so they followed along, having not previously thought about it?