the big EA organization that promise their donors to act against Global Catastrophic Risk were asleep and didn’t react. [...]
Given that the got this so wrong, why should we believe that there other analysis of Global Catastrophic Risk isn’t also extremely flawed?
Although I can’t say I follow GCR’s work, I’m unclear on whether/to what extent GCR or EAs in general necessarily “got this so wrong” or “were asleep and didn’t react.” I recognize it isn’t always easy to demonstrate an absence/negative, but I really think you ought to provide some form of evidence or explanation for that claim—along with a reasonable standard for success vs. failure. To me, your post essentially can be summarized as “COVID-19 was due to lab leak; GCR/EAs are supposed to try to prevent pandemics, but a pandemic happened anyway, so how can we trust GCR/EAs?” Among other issues, this line of reasoning applies an excessively high standard for judging the efforts of GCR/EA: it’s akin to saying “Doctors are supposed to help people, but some people in this hospital ended up dying anyway, so how can we trust doctors?”
Although I can’t say I follow GCR’s work, I’m unclear on whether/to what extent GCR or EAs in general necessarily “got this so wrong” or “were asleep and didn’t react.” I recognize it isn’t always easy to demonstrate an absence/negative, but I really think you ought to provide some form of evidence or explanation for that claim—along with a reasonable standard for success vs. failure. To me, your post essentially can be summarized as “COVID-19 was due to lab leak; GCR/EAs are supposed to try to prevent pandemics, but a pandemic happened anyway, so how can we trust GCR/EAs?” Among other issues, this line of reasoning applies an excessively high standard for judging the efforts of GCR/EA: it’s akin to saying “Doctors are supposed to help people, but some people in this hospital ended up dying anyway, so how can we trust doctors?”