If that’s not what organization like the FLI are for, what’s are they for?
They do their best to gather data, predict events on the base of the data and give recommendations. However data is not perfect, models are not a perfect representation of reality, and recommendations are not necessarily unanimous. To err is human, and mistakes are possible, especially when the foundation of the applied processes contain errors.
Sometimes people just do not have enough information, and certainly nobody can gather information if data does not exist. Still a decision needs to be taken, at least between action vs inaction, and a data-supported expert guess is better than a random guess.
Given a choice, would you prefer nobody carried out the analysis with no possibility of improvement? or would you still let the experts do their job with a reasonable expectation that most of the times, the problems are solved and human conditions improve?
What if their decision had only 10% change of being better than a decision taken without carrying out any analysis? Would you seek expert advice to improve the odd of success, if that was your only option?
They do their best to gather data, predict events on the base of the data and give recommendations. However data is not perfect, models are not a perfect representation of reality, and recommendations are not necessarily unanimous. To err is human, and mistakes are possible, especially when the foundation of the applied processes contain errors.
Sometimes people just do not have enough information, and certainly nobody can gather information if data does not exist. Still a decision needs to be taken, at least between action vs inaction, and a data-supported expert guess is better than a random guess.
Given a choice, would you prefer nobody carried out the analysis with no possibility of improvement? or would you still let the experts do their job with a reasonable expectation that most of the times, the problems are solved and human conditions improve?
What if their decision had only 10% change of being better than a decision taken without carrying out any analysis? Would you seek expert advice to improve the odd of success, if that was your only option?