Cool questions! I am a bit hesitant to update much:
they don’t seem to be too active, e.g. few comments, interest count at around 10 (can you see the number of unique forecasters somehow?)
the people doing the forecasts are probably EA adjacent and if they did something akin to a formal analysis, they would share it with the EA community, or at least in the comments, as it seems relatively useful to contribute this
For the first question, you can see under “community stats” the number of unique users, currently 28.
For the second one you cannot see it on the page, I’m not sure why, but I’d guess its a similar ratio (I.e. approx half of the number of predictions)
Cool questions! I am a bit hesitant to update much:
they don’t seem to be too active, e.g. few comments, interest count at around 10 (can you see the number of unique forecasters somehow?)
the people doing the forecasts are probably EA adjacent and if they did something akin to a formal analysis, they would share it with the EA community, or at least in the comments, as it seems relatively useful to contribute this
For the first question, you can see under “community stats” the number of unique users, currently 28. For the second one you cannot see it on the page, I’m not sure why, but I’d guess its a similar ratio (I.e. approx half of the number of predictions)
Thanks!