I bought the Metaculus predictions (using my Tachyon points on Metaculus) for each of the two questions in your post as well as the malaria question Charles Dillon linked to.
For those unfamiliar, the Metaculus prediction has a better track record than the community prediction (public to everyone, which Michael cited in his post as what Metaculus thinks) over questions on the Metaculus site, however is not generally visible until forecasts on a question are closed.
Knowing the Metaculus predictions does not seem very insightful to me. Nevertheless, if anyone would care to know them, feel free to DM me.
I bought the Metaculus predictions (using my Tachyon points on Metaculus) for each of the two questions in your post as well as the malaria question Charles Dillon linked to.
For those unfamiliar, the Metaculus prediction has a better track record than the community prediction (public to everyone, which Michael cited in his post as what Metaculus thinks) over questions on the Metaculus site, however is not generally visible until forecasts on a question are closed.
Knowing the Metaculus predictions does not seem very insightful to me. Nevertheless, if anyone would care to know them, feel free to DM me.