Thanks, Jack! It is always good to receive feedback on such exercises too!
I agree with all the points you make. As I said:
However, the results [for the factual non-marginal multipliers] might differ accounting for future donations (received after 2021, but caused until then), counterfactuals, diminishing marginal returns, cost-effectiveness of caused donations, and indirect impacts of effective giving. Furthermore, the organisations were at different levels of maturity. Consequently, my estimates for the factual non-marginal multipliers [ROIs] are not directly comparable, and I do not know which of the 4 organisations are more effective at the margin.
However, although it is fine for the (all things considered) factual non-marginal multipliers to be different, the (all things considered) counterfactual marginal multipliers should be the same. If the marginal cost-effectiveness of donating to X is higher than that of donating to Y, one should donate more to X at the margin (which does not mean one should donate 0 to Y).
Thanks, Jack! It is always good to receive feedback on such exercises too!
I agree with all the points you make. As I said:
However, although it is fine for the (all things considered) factual non-marginal multipliers to be different, the (all things considered) counterfactual marginal multipliers should be the same. If the marginal cost-effectiveness of donating to X is higher than that of donating to Y, one should donate more to X at the margin (which does not mean one should donate 0 to Y).