For this reason, we tend to create backward-looking CEAs and then assess whether there are any reasons to expect diminishing returns in the next two years (the duration of an ACE recommendation).
Makes sense. I very much agree the CEAs of past work are valuable. However, I suspect it would be good to be more quantitative/​explicit about how that is used to inform your views about the cost-effectiveness of the additional funds caused by your recommendations. For example, you could determine the marginal cost-effectiveness of each organisation adding the contributions of their programs, determining each contribution multiplying:
The fraction of additional funds (which would be caused by your recommendation) going to the program i. You could ask the organisation about this.
The cost-effectiveness of additional funds going to the program as a fraction of its past cost-effectiveness. You currently consider this qualitatively.
The past cost-effectiveness of the program. You currently consider this quantitatively sometimes via backward-looking CEAs.
We do not recommend charities if there is a large enough gap between their expected marginal cost-effectiveness and that of our other charities, and we do use the framing that you suggest when considering adding the next marginal charity.
Great!
However, since we are unable to always fully quantify the impact on animals of charities’ work, this is partially based on qualitative arguments and judgments, so our decisions may not always appear consistent with the results of our CEAs.
Thanks for the additional clarifications, Vince!
Makes sense. I very much agree the CEAs of past work are valuable. However, I suspect it would be good to be more quantitative/​explicit about how that is used to inform your views about the cost-effectiveness of the additional funds caused by your recommendations. For example, you could determine the marginal cost-effectiveness of each organisation adding the contributions of their programs, determining each contribution multiplying:
The fraction of additional funds (which would be caused by your recommendation) going to the program i. You could ask the organisation about this.
The cost-effectiveness of additional funds going to the program as a fraction of its past cost-effectiveness. You currently consider this qualitatively.
The past cost-effectiveness of the program. You currently consider this quantitatively sometimes via backward-looking CEAs.
Great!
Have you described such judgements somewhere?