Thank you for this. This is all very helpful, and I think your explanations of giving differential weights to factors for average orgs and EA orgs seems very sensible. The 25% for unknown unknowns is probably right too. It doesn’t seem unlikely to me that most folks at average orgs would fail to understand the value of prediction markets even if they turned out to be valuable (since it would require work to prove it).
It would really surprise me if the ‘main reason’ why there is a lack of prediction markets had nothing to do with anything mentioned in the post. I think all unknown unknowns might conjunctly explain 25% of why prediction markets aren’t adopted, but the chance of any single unknown factor being the primary reason is, I think, quite slim.
Thank you for this. This is all very helpful, and I think your explanations of giving differential weights to factors for average orgs and EA orgs seems very sensible. The 25% for unknown unknowns is probably right too. It doesn’t seem unlikely to me that most folks at average orgs would fail to understand the value of prediction markets even if they turned out to be valuable (since it would require work to prove it).
It would really surprise me if the ‘main reason’ why there is a lack of prediction markets had nothing to do with anything mentioned in the post. I think all unknown unknowns might conjunctly explain 25% of why prediction markets aren’t adopted, but the chance of any single unknown factor being the primary reason is, I think, quite slim.