On 4., I very much agree that this section could be more nuanced by mentioning some positive side-effects as well. There might be many managers who fear being undermined by their employees. And surely many employees might feel shameful if they are wrong all the time. However, I think the converse is also true. That managers are insecure, and would love for the company to take decisions on complex hard to determine issues collectively. And that employees would like an arena to express their thoughts on things (where their judgments are heard, and maybe even serves to influence company strategy). I think this is an important consideration that didn’t get through very clearly. There are other plausible goods of prediction markets that aren’t mentioned in the value prop, but which might be relevant to their expected value.
On 4., I very much agree that this section could be more nuanced by mentioning some positive side-effects as well. There might be many managers who fear being undermined by their employees. And surely many employees might feel shameful if they are wrong all the time. However, I think the converse is also true. That managers are insecure, and would love for the company to take decisions on complex hard to determine issues collectively. And that employees would like an arena to express their thoughts on things (where their judgments are heard, and maybe even serves to influence company strategy). I think this is an important consideration that didn’t get through very clearly. There are other plausible goods of prediction markets that aren’t mentioned in the value prop, but which might be relevant to their expected value.