1. The UK began 2020 with an unspoken, dubiously voluntary version of this strategy. As the IFR firmed up, the backlash against this was so large that they were forced to deny that they ever intended any such thing.
The goalposts of this post are: “what is the best we could actually do, just changing the opinion of say a few hundred elites?” Challenge trials were popular; I strongly predict variolation is different, and that popularity matters even if 5% of the youngest and maddest volunteer.
2. You missed the absolutely critical, sign-flipping bit: you have to isolate the variolated! Variolation without enforced isolation is harbouring and abetting a lethal pathogen.
Again, this idea goes way past what our current institutions could possibly consider. They would want validation of the pathogen first, and who can blame em. COVID is indeed abundant, but you’re massively multiplying the number of intentional virus touchpoints, and when every lab slipup can kill a few hundred people…
3. Can’t imagine any private actor touching it with a bargepole.
The nearest possible version of a variolation policy is Hanson’s clinics. They look nothing like decentralised napkin passing, and that’s a feature.
Mm good points. If I were dictator, I would still have a variolation process at least tested and developed for each new pathogen, which could be deployed as an emergency backup.
If by threshold you mean the percentage thing, I would say that at 25% conterfactual harm, variolation is a reasonable option for countries that couldn’t manage vaccines, if nobody else was going to give it to them.
1. The UK began 2020 with an unspoken, dubiously voluntary version of this strategy. As the IFR firmed up, the backlash against this was so large that they were forced to deny that they ever intended any such thing.
The goalposts of this post are: “what is the best we could actually do, just changing the opinion of say a few hundred elites?” Challenge trials were popular; I strongly predict variolation is different, and that popularity matters even if 5% of the youngest and maddest volunteer.
2. You missed the absolutely critical, sign-flipping bit: you have to isolate the variolated! Variolation without enforced isolation is harbouring and abetting a lethal pathogen.
Again, this idea goes way past what our current institutions could possibly consider. They would want validation of the pathogen first, and who can blame em. COVID is indeed abundant, but you’re massively multiplying the number of intentional virus touchpoints, and when every lab slipup can kill a few hundred people…
3. Can’t imagine any private actor touching it with a bargepole.
The nearest possible version of a variolation policy is Hanson’s clinics. They look nothing like decentralised napkin passing, and that’s a feature.
No clue on threshold, gimme some numbers.
Mm good points. If I were dictator, I would still have a variolation process at least tested and developed for each new pathogen, which could be deployed as an emergency backup.
If by threshold you mean the percentage thing, I would say that at 25% conterfactual harm, variolation is a reasonable option for countries that couldn’t manage vaccines, if nobody else was going to give it to them.