Let me explain my position—first, I agree with rejecting a pure time preference, and instead doing discounting based primarily on expected growth in incomes.
For me, the expectation that in 50 years the average person could easily be twice as wealthy, leads to quite heavy discounting of investment to improve their welfare vs spending to alleviate suffering from extreme poverty right now.
It’s possible I haven’t thought this through thoroughly, and am explaining away my lack of enthusiasm for your choice of 5 causes to the neglect of the classic Givewell/GWWC choices. Perhaps there is something to do with efficacy there—that I’m unsure of the likely impact of funding immigration advocacy, forecasting, and more research.
Let me explain my position—first, I agree with rejecting a pure time preference, and instead doing discounting based primarily on expected growth in incomes.
For me, the expectation that in 50 years the average person could easily be twice as wealthy, leads to quite heavy discounting of investment to improve their welfare vs spending to alleviate suffering from extreme poverty right now.
It’s possible I haven’t thought this through thoroughly, and am explaining away my lack of enthusiasm for your choice of 5 causes to the neglect of the classic Givewell/GWWC choices. Perhaps there is something to do with efficacy there—that I’m unsure of the likely impact of funding immigration advocacy, forecasting, and more research.