Re compute overhang, I don’t think this is a defeater. We need the moratorium to be indefinite, and only lifted when there is a global consensus on an alignment solution (and perhaps even a global referendum on pressing go on more powerful foundation models).
Some people in our community have been convinced that an immediate and lengthy AI moratorium is a necessary condition for human survival, but I don’t currently share that assessment.
This makes sense given your timelines and p(doom) outlined above. But I urge you (and others reading) to reconsider the level of danger we are now in[1].
Good to see that you think the ideas should be explored. I think a global moratorium is becoming more feasible, given the UN Security Council meeting on AI, The UK Summit, the Statement on AI risk, public campaigns etc.
Re compute overhang, I don’t think this is a defeater. We need the moratorium to be indefinite, and only lifted when there is a global consensus on an alignment solution (and perhaps even a global referendum on pressing go on more powerful foundation models).
This makes sense given your timelines and p(doom) outlined above. But I urge you (and others reading) to reconsider the level of danger we are now in[1].
Or, ahem, to rethink your priorities (sorry).