I also made a very rough estimate in this article: https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/#in-total-how-effective-is-it-to-reduce-these-risks Though this estimate is much better and I’ve added a link to it.
I also think x-risk over the century is over 1%, and we can reduce it much more cheaply than your guess, though it’s nice to show it’s plausible even with conservative figures.
I also made a very rough estimate in this article: https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/#in-total-how-effective-is-it-to-reduce-these-risks Though this estimate is much better and I’ve added a link to it.
I also think x-risk over the century is over 1%, and we can reduce it much more cheaply than your guess, though it’s nice to show it’s plausible even with conservative figures.