I made a similar observation about AI risk reduction work last year:
“Someone taking a hard ‘inside view’ about AI risk could reasonably view it as better than AMF for people alive now, or during the rest of their lives. I’m thinking something like:
1 in 10 risk of AI killing everyone within the next 50 years. Spending an extra $1 billion on safety research could reduce the size of this risk by 1%.
$1 billion / (0.1 risk reduced by 1% 8 billion lives) = $125 per life saved. Compares with $3,000-7,000+ for AMF.
This is before considering any upside from improved length or quality of life for the present generation as a result of a value-aligned AI.
I’m probably not quite as optimistic as this, but I still prefer AI as a cause over poverty reduction, for the purposes of helping the present generation (and those remaining to be born during my lifetime).”
I made a similar observation about AI risk reduction work last year:
“Someone taking a hard ‘inside view’ about AI risk could reasonably view it as better than AMF for people alive now, or during the rest of their lives. I’m thinking something like:
1 in 10 risk of AI killing everyone within the next 50 years. Spending an extra $1 billion on safety research could reduce the size of this risk by 1%.
$1 billion / (0.1 risk reduced by 1% 8 billion lives) = $125 per life saved. Compares with $3,000-7,000+ for AMF.
This is before considering any upside from improved length or quality of life for the present generation as a result of a value-aligned AI.
I’m probably not quite as optimistic as this, but I still prefer AI as a cause over poverty reduction, for the purposes of helping the present generation (and those remaining to be born during my lifetime).”
http://effective-altruism.com/ea/18u/intuition_jousting_what_it_is_and_why_it_should/amj