I see. I guess the probability over the next 10 years of something like what I described is lower than 0.001 %. I remain open tobetsagainst short AI timelines, or what they supposedly imply, up to 10 k$. Do you see any that we could make that is good for both of us considering we could invest our money, and that you could take loans?
I spent a few days thinking about this but I struggled to come up with a bet structure that I was confident was good for both of us. The financial implications of this sort of bet are complicated. I didn’t want to spend more time on it so I’ll punt on this for now but I will keep it in the back of my mind in case I come up with anything.
I see. I guess the probability over the next 10 years of something like what I described is lower than 0.001 %. I remain open to bets against short AI timelines, or what they supposedly imply, up to 10 k$. Do you see any that we could make that is good for both of us considering we could invest our money, and that you could take loans?
I spent a few days thinking about this but I struggled to come up with a bet structure that I was confident was good for both of us. The financial implications of this sort of bet are complicated. I didn’t want to spend more time on it so I’ll punt on this for now but I will keep it in the back of my mind in case I come up with anything.
Thanks, Michael.