I don’t really know enough about the empirics to add much beyond the possible “implications” flagged at the end of the post. Maybe the clearest implication is just the need for further research into flow-through effects, to better identify which interventions are most promising by the lights of reliable global capacity growth (since that seems a question that has been unduly neglected to date).
Thanks for flagging the “sandboxing” argument against AW swamping of GHD. I guess a lot depends there on how uncertain the case for AW effectiveness is. (I didn’t have the impression that it was especially uncertain, such that it belongs more in the “moonshot” category. But maybe I’m wrong about that.) But if there are reasonable grounds for viewing AW as at least an order of magnitude more effective than GHD in terms of its immediate effects, and no such strong countervailing arguments for viewing AW as at least an order of magnitude less effective, then it seems like it would be hard to justify allocating more funding to GHD than to AW, purely on the basis of the immediate effects.
I don’t really know enough about the empirics to add much beyond the possible “implications” flagged at the end of the post. Maybe the clearest implication is just the need for further research into flow-through effects, to better identify which interventions are most promising by the lights of reliable global capacity growth (since that seems a question that has been unduly neglected to date).
Thanks for flagging the “sandboxing” argument against AW swamping of GHD. I guess a lot depends there on how uncertain the case for AW effectiveness is. (I didn’t have the impression that it was especially uncertain, such that it belongs more in the “moonshot” category. But maybe I’m wrong about that.) But if there are reasonable grounds for viewing AW as at least an order of magnitude more effective than GHD in terms of its immediate effects, and no such strong countervailing arguments for viewing AW as at least an order of magnitude less effective, then it seems like it would be hard to justify allocating more funding to GHD than to AW, purely on the basis of the immediate effects.