You listed important considerations; here are some additional points to consider:
1. As suggested in SethBaum’s comment, a short runway may deter people from joining the org (especially people with larger personal financial responsibilities and opportunity cost).
2. It seems likely that—all other things being equal—orgs with a longer runway are “less vulnerable to Goodhart’s law” and generally less prone to optimize for short-term impressiveness in costly ways. Selection effects alone seem sufficient to justify this belief: Orgs with a short runway that don’t optimize for short-term impressiveness seem less likely to keep on existing.
You listed important considerations; here are some additional points to consider:
1. As suggested in SethBaum’s comment, a short runway may deter people from joining the org (especially people with larger personal financial responsibilities and opportunity cost).
2. It seems likely that—all other things being equal—orgs with a longer runway are “less vulnerable to Goodhart’s law” and generally less prone to optimize for short-term impressiveness in costly ways. Selection effects alone seem sufficient to justify this belief: Orgs with a short runway that don’t optimize for short-term impressiveness seem less likely to keep on existing.