I imagine there is little benefit to killing a bug and a high cost(around 2 weeks to 30 Years of life lost) to killing a bug, though it depends on the species and environment in which you spotted the bug(s). If it’s in your home, I recommend trying to trap it (maybe by putting a see-through container over the bug, slipping something under the container so the bug can’t crawl out, carrying the container and bottom to the trash can, and throwing it away?) and put it in the trash(Unless your garbage gets crushed by dumpster trucks and/or factories with tremendous force), as the bug will have access to plenty of nooks & crannies, as well as food, and won’t bother you.
If there’s a bug infestation, I think you could, in order of what I imagine has the highest value first and lowest last, do the best available option of the following options:
a) if it’s not bothering you too much, leave it. It would take your time and the bug’s time to figure out how to leave, and you shouldn’t do it if no one gains from it. b) Hire someone to get rid of them humanely(only if you’re in a bug-tolerant environment(e.g., Not somewhere where it floods often). c) move locations. d) if none of the others work, do b).
From my experience as a U.S. citizen, I have found that there isn’t really a traditional meal for Christmas. (for reference, in my experience, thanksgiving traditionally includes mac’n cheese, turkey, mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes, pumpkin pie, etc.) Is this just me?
If not, I think it would be a wonderful idea to push public norms for Christmas meals in the U.S. to be primarily vegan, and perhaps we tie it to Christianity since that is a big part of Christmas.
If this is a good idea, I reckon we should start sooner rather than later since non-vegan traditions might take hold.
New EA subgroup Idea: EA for young people (around 14 or lower-ish) My primary motivation is that parents or guardians can be hesitant to let their young people engage with adult strangers online (and sometimes young people themselves share similar concerns) (and rightfully so, even within EA! (though less so than not within EA.)) This can sometimes prevent or limit a young person’s ability to engage with and take part in EA. If there were a space centered around young people in EA, then parents/guardians would feel more comfortable letting their young people engage with EA, let young people in EA feel more comfortable with it, plus other positive effects that I haven’t thought of! (all people there would have to go through safety checks, though: we don’t want unsafe people doing unsafe things to young, EA-involved people!)
If anyone has any thoughts, would like to help me develop this idea, or anything else, feel free to message me directly or put it in a comment!
I just thaught I’d share this EA-related YouTube channel that I like. It has nice explainers, some interesting poems, and partnered with GiveDirectly pretty recently. Their (I say their because it’s a team of people) name is rational animations. Here’s the link to their channel: https://youtube.com/@RationalAnimations?si=s8253eyfJwSI3Lnp
It’s possible that investing right and gaming prediction markets[1], something in which EAs have an advantage (this also means that money gained through prediction markets is likely also money that other EAs lost, however), is potentially an easier, more cost-effective, and time-effective way to double your impact when donating to charities.
In addition, perhaps charities should try to multiply the amount of money they have to do good with, using methods like these.
(This is very draft-stage)
“Advertising” AI governance as trying to make it impossible for competition of [AI Company name] to beat said AI company but not harm said AI company too much (potentially if said AI company acts safely), then said AI company would likely support said governance.
Note: I just came up with this idea, so it might be bad:
Have some cryptography key thing that only certain institutions have, so keep information out of harms way.
For example, a paper titled “the pandemic-causing abilities of (placeholder), and how to make them.”, or “the dangers of using (placeholder) to jailbreak AI”.
Perhaps the key could be distributed by the government, or maybe when you get a PhD or other level of expertise in the feild, you get the key.
New potential cause area: preventing pandemics or pandemic spread in non-human animals. (this is perhaps most tractable for farmed animals, and is already worked on for farmed animals.)
(Note that this relies on you knowing nothing else about the weights of the die. It’s a good model even when you do know more info on the weights, but not a perfect one.)
I’m currently working out the math/statistics behind finding probability distributions of variables given sample data in a lot of different cases, so if that might be useful for your situation, feel free to contact me about it!
(article coming out about it in ∼2 months) (here’s a sample)
I think maybe we should change what the EA Forum shows up as when we search “EA” on google?
Maybe to something that sounds more like a smaller, but still significant group, such as EA stack exchange, or Altruism Effectively forum, or 5chan? (This might help grow the EA’s popularity)
When deciding whether or not to allocate your time to write a forum post that is made to save people time[1], people often might only account for the time it saves people. Make sure you also take into account the time it gives them to do other important things.
One quick way to re-instill motivation for those working on the animal welfare of those of unknown sentience, It’s useful to remember that the probability of 2 possibly sentient beings being sentient, even if they are the same species, is independent. They don’t have to be either both sentient or not sentient, so you’re not taking a 1 in 100 chance that your job is worthwhile. You’re taking a 1-(0.99ⁿ) (where n is the number of times you save a life that has a 1 in 100 chance of being sentient) of your job being worthwhile.
I think the EA forum should have an option titled “Save to your device” (It could be called something different), Next to “Login” And “Sign up”, So new users feel less intimidated to use the EA forum, And are more likely to engage with it.
I think maybe we actually should vet new Effective Altruists since being part of EA exposes new Effective Altruists to many positions of power, as well as dangerous information, and we don’t want another [He-who-shall-not-be-named-except-for-his-initials-(SBF)] on our hands, or a terrorist who kills everyone after learning about biosecurity. I could be wrong, but what do y’all think?
My personal oppinion/initial thoughts on pascal’s mugging
in the real world, luckily for us, in Effective Altruism, although sometimes, we deal with tiny probabilities, I rarely run into a super tiny (like maybe 1 in 1049), in a scenario where it makes sense.
I imagine there is little benefit to killing a bug and a high cost(around 2 weeks to 30 Years of life lost) to killing a bug, though it depends on the species and environment in which you spotted the bug(s). If it’s in your home, I recommend trying to trap it (maybe by putting a see-through container over the bug, slipping something under the container so the bug can’t crawl out, carrying the container and bottom to the trash can, and throwing it away?) and put it in the trash(Unless your garbage gets crushed by dumpster trucks and/or factories with tremendous force), as the bug will have access to plenty of nooks & crannies, as well as food, and won’t bother you.
If there’s a bug infestation, I think you could, in order of what I imagine has the highest value first and lowest last, do the best available option of the following options:
a) if it’s not bothering you too much, leave it. It would take your time and the bug’s time to figure out how to leave, and you shouldn’t do it if no one gains from it. b) Hire someone to get rid of them humanely(only if you’re in a bug-tolerant environment(e.g., Not somewhere where it floods often). c) move locations. d) if none of the others work, do b).
Agreed on avoiding harming insects!
Though it’s commendable to try to help insects, putting a bug in the trash might be negative, because that increases insect populations, and insects might lead negative lives: https://www.simonknutsson.com/how-good-or-bad-is-the-life-of-an-insect
Avoiding silk, shellac, and carmine also helps reduce suffering for many insects: https://www.wikihow.fitness/Avoid-Hurting-Insects
Interesting! sorry I just saw this. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Might look into it more later today, when I’m free
I think this isn’t mentioned enough in EA, and I feel the need to point out this quote from William_MacAskill_when-should-an-effective-altruist-donate.pdf (globalprioritiesinstitute.org):
″
″ (p. 7)
In other words”
v(A)=[P(Utilitarianism is correct)⋅v(A|Utilitarianism is correct)] +
[P(Rationalism is correct)⋅v(A|Rationalism is correct) + ⋅⋅ ⋅
, where v(A) is the value of some action A, P(B) is the probability of some thing B being true, and f(A|B) is f(A), given that B is true.
From my experience as a U.S. citizen, I have found that there isn’t really a traditional meal for Christmas. (for reference, in my experience, thanksgiving traditionally includes mac’n cheese, turkey, mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes, pumpkin pie, etc.) Is this just me?
If not, I think it would be a wonderful idea to push public norms for Christmas meals in the U.S. to be primarily vegan, and perhaps we tie it to Christianity since that is a big part of Christmas.
If this is a good idea, I reckon we should start sooner rather than later since non-vegan traditions might take hold.
New EA subgroup Idea: EA for young people (around 14 or lower-ish)
My primary motivation is that parents or guardians can be hesitant to let their young people engage with adult strangers online (and sometimes young people themselves share similar concerns) (and rightfully so, even within EA! (though less so than not within EA.)) This can sometimes prevent or limit a young person’s ability to engage with and take part in EA. If there were a space centered around young people in EA, then parents/guardians would feel more comfortable letting their young people engage with EA, let young people in EA feel more comfortable with it, plus other positive effects that I haven’t thought of! (all people there would have to go through safety checks, though: we don’t want unsafe people doing unsafe things to young, EA-involved people!)
If anyone has any thoughts, would like to help me develop this idea, or anything else, feel free to message me directly or put it in a comment!
I just thaught I’d share this EA-related YouTube channel that I like. It has nice explainers, some interesting poems, and partnered with GiveDirectly pretty recently. Their (I say their because it’s a team of people) name is rational animations. Here’s the link to their channel: https://youtube.com/@RationalAnimations?si=s8253eyfJwSI3Lnp
Happy watching!
Spread the word! https://web.archive.org/web/20240105055337/http://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/health/covid-masks-vaccinations.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare (I edited the link so that it doesn’t require you to have a New York Times account to read the New York Times article) TL;DR is that there might (emphasis on the “might”) be another COVID-19 wave on the rise (in the US), there’s a new COVID-19 variant (JN.1) (which has a vaccine) (everywhere), not enough people are wearing masks(in the US), and not enough people are getting the latest vaccines against COVID-19 (including the vaccine(s) against the new variant, JN.1), the flu, and RSV (in the US)
Are there vaccines specific to the new variant?
The short answer is yes. Details are as follows:
JN.1 is the variant mentioned in the linked article.
“Updated COVID-19 vaccines are expected to increase protection against JN.1, as they do for other variants. As noted in previous updates, COVID-19 tests and treatments are expected to be effective against JN.1.” (“Update on SARS-CoV-2 Variant JN.1 Being Tracked by CDC,” 2023)[1].
There are vaccines against EG.5 and HV.1 variants. (“Will New COVID Vaccines Work Against EG.5 and HV.1?,” 2023)[2].
There are vaccines against BA.2.86. (Bugos, n.d.)[3].
I will now add this to my quick take. Thanks for pointing out this lack of vital information!
Update on SARS-CoV-2 Variant JN.1 Being Tracked by CDC. (2023, December 8). CDC. Retrieved January 6, 2024, from https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/SARS-CoV-2-variant-JN.1.html#:~:text=At%20this%20time%2C%20there%20is,they%20do%20for%20other%20variants.
“There is no indication of increased severity from JN.1 at this time.
Updated COVID-19 vaccines are expected to increase protection against JN.1, as they do for other variants.”
Will New COVID Vaccines Work Against EG.5 and HV.1? (2023). COVID-19 Real-Time Learning Network. https://www.idsociety.org/covid-19-real-time-learning-network/vaccines/will-new-covid-vaccines-work-against-eg.5-and-hv.1#/+/0/publishedDate_na_dt/desc/
Bugos, C. (n.d.). New COVID-19 Vaccines Should Protect Against BA.2.86 and EG.5, Early Research Shows. Verywell Health. https://www.verywellhealth.com/pfizer-moderna-new-covid-vaccines-xbb15-ba286-7968195
Hold on I’m checking...
(btw sorry for late response)
It’s possible that investing right and gaming prediction markets[1], something in which EAs have an advantage (this also means that money gained through prediction markets is likely also money that other EAs lost, however), is potentially an easier, more cost-effective, and time-effective way to double your impact when donating to charities.
In addition, perhaps charities should try to multiply the amount of money they have to do good with, using methods like these.
Stay safe, and stay alert (especially on the roads/while driving)
(This is very draft-stage) “Advertising” AI governance as trying to make it impossible for competition of [AI Company name] to beat said AI company but not harm said AI company too much (potentially if said AI company acts safely), then said AI company would likely support said governance.
Note: I just came up with this idea, so it might be bad: Have some cryptography key thing that only certain institutions have, so keep information out of harms way.
For example, a paper titled “the pandemic-causing abilities of (placeholder), and how to make them.”, or “the dangers of using (placeholder) to jailbreak AI”.
Perhaps the key could be distributed by the government, or maybe when you get a PhD or other level of expertise in the feild, you get the key.
¯_(”/)_/¯
New potential cause area: preventing pandemics or pandemic spread in non-human animals. (this is perhaps most tractable for farmed animals, and is already worked on for farmed animals.)
I found this to be really interesting, and figured others might also find it interesting:
(Learn more here: Rule of succession—Wikipedia)
(Note that this relies on you knowing nothing else about the weights of the die. It’s a good model even when you do know more info on the weights, but not a perfect one.)
Redirects to Request* for Biosecurity project assistance — EA Forum (effectivealtruism.org)
I’m currently working out the math/statistics behind finding probability distributions of variables given sample data in a lot of different cases, so if that might be useful for your situation, feel free to contact me about it!
(article coming out about it in ∼2 months) (here’s a sample)
I think maybe we should change what the EA Forum shows up as when we search “EA” on google?
Maybe to something that sounds more like a smaller, but still significant group, such as EA stack exchange, or Altruism Effectively forum, or 5chan? (This might help grow the EA’s popularity)
Or maybe Altruism Weekly?
What do y’all think?
When deciding whether or not to allocate your time to write a forum post that is made to save people time[1], people often might only account for the time it saves people. Make sure you also take into account the time it gives them to do other important things.
For example, Kids or No Kids — EA Forum (effectivealtruism.org).
I personally prefer 80,000 Hours’s [https://80000hours.org/career-planning/process/] than their [https://80000hours.org/career-guide/introduction/], as it’s more straightforward, the guide is more useful, and it’s less repetitive. Note that I am just one person, and I only read up to the 7th part of their [https://80000hours.org/career-guide/introduction/], and I read it during summer 2023 (from the start of July to the end of August)
I find guilt motivating, and it helps rekindle that spark from when I started being an effective altruist. maybe you might find it useful, but idk.
One quick way to re-instill motivation for those working on the animal welfare of those of unknown sentience, It’s useful to remember that the probability of 2 possibly sentient beings being sentient, even if they are the same species, is independent. They don’t have to be either both sentient or not sentient, so you’re not taking a 1 in 100 chance that your job is worthwhile. You’re taking a 1-(0.99ⁿ) (where n is the number of times you save a life that has a 1 in 100 chance of being sentient) of your job being worthwhile.
I think the EA forum should have an option titled “Save to your device” (It could be called something different), Next to “Login” And “Sign up”, So new users feel less intimidated to use the EA forum, And are more likely to engage with it.
I think maybe we actually should vet new Effective Altruists since being part of EA exposes new Effective Altruists to many positions of power, as well as dangerous information, and we don’t want another [He-who-shall-not-be-named-except-for-his-initials-(SBF)] on our hands, or a terrorist who kills everyone after learning about biosecurity. I could be wrong, but what do y’all think?
My personal oppinion/initial thoughts on pascal’s mugging
in the real world, luckily for us, in Effective Altruism, although sometimes, we deal with tiny probabilities, I rarely run into a super tiny (like maybe 1 in 1049), in a scenario where it makes sense.
One of us should run for president of the U.S.
I think most of us would be better than the alternative, and it could have a huge positive effect.
If you’re qualified, please run.
(I selected many seemingly unrelated fields because the president can do so much)
this was deleted