Executive summary: This exploratory proposal advocates for a pilot programme using metagenomic sequencing of wastewater at Auckland Airport to detect novel pathogens entering New Zealand, arguing that early detection could avert the enormous health and economic costs of future pandemics at a relatively low annual investment of NZD 3.6 million.
Key points:
Pilot proposal: The author proposes a metagenomic sequencing pilot focused on Auckland Airport—responsible for 77% of international arrivals—using daily wastewater sampling to detect both known and novel pathogens.
Cost-benefit analysis: A Monte Carlo simulation suggests that the expected annual pandemic cost to New Zealand is NZD 362.8 million; even partial early detection (e.g., 60% at Auckland) could yield NZD 99–132 million in avoided costs annually, implying a benefit-cost ratio of up to 37:1.
Technology readiness: Advances in sequencing technology (e.g., Illumina and Nanopore) have reduced costs and increased sensitivity, making real-time pathogen surveillance more feasible and scalable than ever before.
Pandemic risk context: Based on historical data and WHO warnings, the annual probability of a severe pandemic may range from 2–4%, reinforcing the need for proactive surveillance.
Expansion potential: The framework could later include additional international and domestic airports, urban wastewater, and even waterways, enhancing both temporal and geographic surveillance coverage.
Policy rationale: Current pandemic preparedness spending is relatively low compared to the costs of past pandemics, and the public intuitively supports visible, understandable risks (like fire), underscoring the need to invest in less tangible but equally critical threats like pandemics.
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Executive summary: This exploratory proposal advocates for a pilot programme using metagenomic sequencing of wastewater at Auckland Airport to detect novel pathogens entering New Zealand, arguing that early detection could avert the enormous health and economic costs of future pandemics at a relatively low annual investment of NZD 3.6 million.
Key points:
Pilot proposal: The author proposes a metagenomic sequencing pilot focused on Auckland Airport—responsible for 77% of international arrivals—using daily wastewater sampling to detect both known and novel pathogens.
Cost-benefit analysis: A Monte Carlo simulation suggests that the expected annual pandemic cost to New Zealand is NZD 362.8 million; even partial early detection (e.g., 60% at Auckland) could yield NZD 99–132 million in avoided costs annually, implying a benefit-cost ratio of up to 37:1.
Technology readiness: Advances in sequencing technology (e.g., Illumina and Nanopore) have reduced costs and increased sensitivity, making real-time pathogen surveillance more feasible and scalable than ever before.
Pandemic risk context: Based on historical data and WHO warnings, the annual probability of a severe pandemic may range from 2–4%, reinforcing the need for proactive surveillance.
Expansion potential: The framework could later include additional international and domestic airports, urban wastewater, and even waterways, enhancing both temporal and geographic surveillance coverage.
Policy rationale: Current pandemic preparedness spending is relatively low compared to the costs of past pandemics, and the public intuitively supports visible, understandable risks (like fire), underscoring the need to invest in less tangible but equally critical threats like pandemics.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.