An important (and to me fairly open) related question is to what extent this ends up being action-guiding? Eg if I lower my probability estimate of this materialising by 10 percentage points, how much will it affect resources I spend on helping to prepare for the possible outcome? Perhaps people here have thoughts on that—my impression is that working on improving the future opportunity set for such donations is relatively robustly good right now?
An important (and to me fairly open) related question is to what extent this ends up being action-guiding?
Eg if I lower my probability estimate of this materialising by 10 percentage points, how much will it affect resources I spend on helping to prepare for the possible outcome? Perhaps people here have thoughts on that—my impression is that working on improving the future opportunity set for such donations is relatively robustly good right now?