If I am betting $5 of play money on Manifold (meaning off-the-cuff gut check with no research) I would generally bet low as long as the person did not ~specifically promote FTX. If there was specific promotion of FTX, you could see claims like these which would be beyond my willingness to speculate $5 of play money at this time.
Here are some off-the-cuff questions I might want to ask (again, no research) if I were thinking about a specific case:
Could anyone potentially show that they actually and reasonably relied on the statements that were made to transact business with FTX?
How relevant were the statements to a reasonable person who might be considering transacting business with FTX? For example, one might think “Joe told me SBF was frugal despite knowing that was a quarter-truth at best, I wouldn’t have opened an FTX account had he not said that, and it was reasonable for me to rely on SBF’s frugality to decide whether to open an account” sounds like a stretch. On the other hand, reliance on “Jane had very good reason to believe SBF had done shady and illegal stuff, yet forcefully presented him as a trustworthy paragon of moral virtue on her podcast” starts feeling a little more realistic.
How much of the speaker’s content (not just the allegedly false/misleading statements about SBF) was about FTX? If it talked a lot about the advantages of doing business with FTX, etc., then the nexus between the speech and reliance seems stronger. If the context is SBF as a role model for EA EtGers, that would seem a real stretch.
Was there a direct or indirect financial benefit to the speaker or a related entity? If SBF gave the speaker (or more likely, their organization) tons of money, this starts looking more like a ~paid endorsement. And we are generally more willing to put duties on ~paid endorsers than on (say) on you and my comments on this Forum.
Also questions 3 and 4 get into potential causes of action for assisting with the sales of unregistered securities (cf. page 36 here). It’s unclear to me how an EA leader speaking out would increase their exposure to such a lawsuit.
There’s also the more realist answer to your question, which goes like this: the greater your income and assets, the greater your risk. My parents (on Social Security which can’t be garnished, only significant asset is the marital home which is difficult for creditors to access) probably wouldn’t need to worry. Unless you’re doing it for ideological reasons, why sue if you can’t collect more than what litigation costs?
(understanding you are a guy betting $5 on manifold)
re: #3. Does this get blurred if the company made an explicit marketing push about what a great guy their CEO was? I imagine that still wouldn’t affect statements on him as a role model[1] , but might matter if they said many positive statements about him on a platform aimed at the general public.
Not a crypto-focused platform (e.g., Joe’s Crypto Podcast?) No particular reason to know or believe that the company (had / was going to) use something Person said as part of their marketing campaign? If negative to both, it doesn’t affect my $5 Manifold bet.
If I am betting $5 of play money on Manifold (meaning off-the-cuff gut check with no research) I would generally bet low as long as the person did not ~specifically promote FTX. If there was specific promotion of FTX, you could see claims like these which would be beyond my willingness to speculate $5 of play money at this time.
Here are some off-the-cuff questions I might want to ask (again, no research) if I were thinking about a specific case:
Could anyone potentially show that they actually and reasonably relied on the statements that were made to transact business with FTX?
How relevant were the statements to a reasonable person who might be considering transacting business with FTX? For example, one might think “Joe told me SBF was frugal despite knowing that was a quarter-truth at best, I wouldn’t have opened an FTX account had he not said that, and it was reasonable for me to rely on SBF’s frugality to decide whether to open an account” sounds like a stretch. On the other hand, reliance on “Jane had very good reason to believe SBF had done shady and illegal stuff, yet forcefully presented him as a trustworthy paragon of moral virtue on her podcast” starts feeling a little more realistic.
How much of the speaker’s content (not just the allegedly false/misleading statements about SBF) was about FTX? If it talked a lot about the advantages of doing business with FTX, etc., then the nexus between the speech and reliance seems stronger. If the context is SBF as a role model for EA EtGers, that would seem a real stretch.
Was there a direct or indirect financial benefit to the speaker or a related entity? If SBF gave the speaker (or more likely, their organization) tons of money, this starts looking more like a ~paid endorsement. And we are generally more willing to put duties on ~paid endorsers than on (say) on you and my comments on this Forum.
Also questions 3 and 4 get into potential causes of action for assisting with the sales of unregistered securities (cf. page 36 here). It’s unclear to me how an EA leader speaking out would increase their exposure to such a lawsuit.
There’s also the more realist answer to your question, which goes like this: the greater your income and assets, the greater your risk. My parents (on Social Security which can’t be garnished, only significant asset is the marital home which is difficult for creditors to access) probably wouldn’t need to worry. Unless you’re doing it for ideological reasons, why sue if you can’t collect more than what litigation costs?
(understanding you are a guy betting $5 on manifold)
re: #3. Does this get blurred if the company made an explicit marketing push about what a great guy their CEO was? I imagine that still wouldn’t affect statements on him as a role model[1] , but might matter if they said many positive statements about him on a platform aimed at the general public.
legally
Not a crypto-focused platform (e.g., Joe’s Crypto Podcast?) No particular reason to know or believe that the company (had / was going to) use something Person said as part of their marketing campaign? If negative to both, it doesn’t affect my $5 Manifold bet.
thanks, I appreciate all this info.