Weâre happy to sink hundreds of hours into fun âcriticism of EAâ contests, but when the biggest disaster in EAâs history manifests, we arenât willing to pay even one investigator to review what happened so we can get the facts straight, begin to rebuild trust, and see if thereâs anything we should change in response?
I disagree with this framing.
Something that I believe I got wrong pre-FTX was base rates/âpriors: I had assumed that if a company was making billions of dollars, had received investment from top-tier firms, complied with a bunch of regulations, etc. then the chance of serious misconduct was fairly low.
Itâs hard to measure this, but at least anecdotally some other people (including in âEA leadershipâ positions) tell me that they were updated by this work and think that they similarly had incorrect priors.
I think what you are calling an âinvestigationâ is fine/âgood, but it is not the only way to âget the facts straightâ or âsee if thereâs anything we should change in responseâ.
Fair! I definitely donât want to imply that thereâs been zero reflection or inquiry in the wake of FTX. I just think âwhat actually happened within EA networks, and could we have done better with different processes or norms?â is a really large and central piece of the puzzle.
I disagree with this framing.
Something that I believe I got wrong pre-FTX was base rates/âpriors: I had assumed that if a company was making billions of dollars, had received investment from top-tier firms, complied with a bunch of regulations, etc. then the chance of serious misconduct was fairly low.
I have now spent a fair amount of time documenting that this is not true, in data sets of YCombinator companies and major philanthropists.
Itâs hard to measure this, but at least anecdotally some other people (including in âEA leadershipâ positions) tell me that they were updated by this work and think that they similarly had incorrect priors.
I think what you are calling an âinvestigationâ is fine/âgood, but it is not the only way to âget the facts straightâ or âsee if thereâs anything we should change in responseâ.
Fair! I definitely donât want to imply that thereâs been zero reflection or inquiry in the wake of FTX. I just think âwhat actually happened within EA networks, and could we have done better with different processes or norms?â is a really large and central piece of the puzzle.