Again, under the assumption that your goal is fraud detection.
It seems like a goal of ~”fraud detection” not further specified may be near the nadir of utility for an investigation.
If you go significantly narrower, then how EA managed (or didn’t manage) SBF fraud seems rather important to figuring out how to deal with the risk of similar fraudulent schemes in the future.[1]
If you go significantly broader (cf. Oli’s reference to “detecting and propagating information about future adversarial behavior”), the blockers you identify seem significantly less relevant, which may increase the expected value of an investigation.
My tentative guess is that it would be best to analyze potential courses of action in terms of their effects on the “EA immune system” at multiple points of specificity, not just close relations of a specific known pathogen (e.g., SBF-like schemes), a class of pathogens (e.g., “fraud”), or pathogens writ large (e.g., “future adversarial behavior”).
Given past EA involvement with crypto, and the base rate of not-too-subtle fraud in crypto, the risk of similar fraudulent schemes seems more than theoretical to me.
It seems like a goal of ~”fraud detection” not further specified may be near the nadir of utility for an investigation.
If you go significantly narrower, then how EA managed (or didn’t manage) SBF fraud seems rather important to figuring out how to deal with the risk of similar fraudulent schemes in the future.[1]
If you go significantly broader (cf. Oli’s reference to “detecting and propagating information about future adversarial behavior”), the blockers you identify seem significantly less relevant, which may increase the expected value of an investigation.
My tentative guess is that it would be best to analyze potential courses of action in terms of their effects on the “EA immune system” at multiple points of specificity, not just close relations of a specific known pathogen (e.g., SBF-like schemes), a class of pathogens (e.g., “fraud”), or pathogens writ large (e.g., “future adversarial behavior”).
Given past EA involvement with crypto, and the base rate of not-too-subtle fraud in crypto, the risk of similar fraudulent schemes seems more than theoretical to me.