I think most grants are not binary “sucess” or “failure” but outcomes have a lot more granularity than that—so it would probably need to be a distribution of outcomes.
I think there are also often benefits like value of information (it’s useful for someone to try, even if the project doesn’t seem like it will be “successful” as written), upskilling, and the like to projects, which I expect many grantmakers (especially if you’re thinking about things like small grants or funding a one-off project) try to evaluate and plan on.
I think most grants are not binary “sucess” or “failure” but outcomes have a lot more granularity than that—so it would probably need to be a distribution of outcomes.
I think there are also often benefits like value of information (it’s useful for someone to try, even if the project doesn’t seem like it will be “successful” as written), upskilling, and the like to projects, which I expect many grantmakers (especially if you’re thinking about things like small grants or funding a one-off project) try to evaluate and plan on.