I do think you should hedge more given the tower of assumptions underneath.
The title of the post is simultaneously very confident (“the market implies” and “but not more”), but also somewhat imprecise (“trillions” and “value”). It was not clear to me that the point you were trying to make was that the number was high.
Your use of “but not more” implies you were also trying to assert the point that it was not that high, but I agree with your point above that the market could be even bigger. If you believe it could be much bigger, that seems inconsistent with the title.
I also think “value” and “revenue” are not equivalent for 2 reasons:
Value should factor in the consumer surplus
Even if you only look at the producer surplus, then you should look at profit not revenue
FWIW this might not be true of the average reader but I felt like I understood all the implicit assumptions Ben was making and I think it’s fine that he didn’t add more caveats/hedging. His argument improved my model of the world.
It’s fair that I only added “(but not more)” to the forum version – it’s not in the original article which was framed more like a lower bound. Though, I stand by “not more” in the sense that the market isn’t expecting it to be *way* more, as you’d get in an intelligence explosion or automation of most of the economy. Anyway I edited it a bit.
I’m not taking revenue to be equivalent to value. I define value as max consumer willingness to pay, which is closely related to consumer surplus.
I do think you should hedge more given the tower of assumptions underneath.
The title of the post is simultaneously very confident (“the market implies” and “but not more”), but also somewhat imprecise (“trillions” and “value”). It was not clear to me that the point you were trying to make was that the number was high.
Your use of “but not more” implies you were also trying to assert the point that it was not that high, but I agree with your point above that the market could be even bigger. If you believe it could be much bigger, that seems inconsistent with the title.
I also think “value” and “revenue” are not equivalent for 2 reasons:
Value should factor in the consumer surplus
Even if you only look at the producer surplus, then you should look at profit not revenue
FWIW this might not be true of the average reader but I felt like I understood all the implicit assumptions Ben was making and I think it’s fine that he didn’t add more caveats/hedging. His argument improved my model of the world.
It’s fair that I only added “(but not more)” to the forum version – it’s not in the original article which was framed more like a lower bound. Though, I stand by “not more” in the sense that the market isn’t expecting it to be *way* more, as you’d get in an intelligence explosion or automation of most of the economy. Anyway I edited it a bit.
I’m not taking revenue to be equivalent to value. I define value as max consumer willingness to pay, which is closely related to consumer surplus.