Something that surprised me from the Superforecasting book is that just having a registry helps, even when those predictions aren’t part of a prediction market.
Maybe a prediction market is overkill right now? I think that registering predictions could be valuable even without the critical mass necessary for the market to have much liquidity. It seems that the advantage of prediction markets is in incentivizing people to try to participate and do well, but if we’re just trying to track predictions that EAs are already trying to make then that might be enough.
Something that surprised me from the Superforecasting book is that just having a registry helps, even when those predictions aren’t part of a prediction market.
Maybe a prediction market is overkill right now? I think that registering predictions could be valuable even without the critical mass necessary for the market to have much liquidity. It seems that the advantage of prediction markets is in incentivizing people to try to participate and do well, but if we’re just trying to track predictions that EAs are already trying to make then that might be enough.
Also, one of FLI’s cofounders (Anthony Aguirre) started a prediction registry: http://www.metaculus.com/ , http://futureoflife.org/2016/01/24/predicting-the-future-of-life/