Great comment. I count only 65 percentage points—is the other third “something else happened”?
Or were you not conditioning on long-termist failure? (That would be scary.)
I was not conditioning on long termist failure, but I also don’t think my last three points are mutually exclusive, so they shouldn’t be naively summed.
Additionally, is it not likely that those scenarios are correlated?
Great comment. I count only 65 percentage points—is the other third “something else happened”?
Or were you not conditioning on long-termist failure? (That would be scary.)
I was not conditioning on long termist failure, but I also don’t think my last three points are mutually exclusive, so they shouldn’t be naively summed.
Additionally, is it not likely that those scenarios are correlated?