Thank you all for joining, I hope you enjoyed it as well! My delay getting home was less severe than on the way to Atopia but still a lot more than 1 minute and today there were white patches on the grass close to the S-Bahn ^^
A couple of random points connected to yesterday’s discussion. I would be glad to hear your thoughts:
For me the best thing I learned yesterday was how beneficial it can actually be to discuss a question, based on the probability different people assign to a certain outcome. I hadn’t realised this before.
And, last point: I have a question. Is anyone aware of any good research on the topic of how well humans perform when making decisions on guessed probabilities in complex cenarios where the whole state space is (other than in a game scenario) not known to anyone.
Thank you all for joining, I hope you enjoyed it as well! My delay getting home was less severe than on the way to Atopia but still a lot more than 1 minute and today there were white patches on the grass close to the S-Bahn ^^
A couple of random points connected to yesterday’s discussion. I would be glad to hear your thoughts:
For me the best thing I learned yesterday was how beneficial it can actually be to discuss a question, based on the probability different people assign to a certain outcome. I hadn’t realised this before.
Here is an article about probabilistic reasoning that Isa and I discussed during preparation as well, maybe you’ll find it as interesting as we did: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BWLAzZEA5K7HPr2CL/probabilities-prioritization-and-bayesian-mindset
And, last point: I have a question. Is anyone aware of any good research on the topic of how well humans perform when making decisions on guessed probabilities in complex cenarios where the whole state space is (other than in a game scenario) not known to anyone.