I received a DM from someone who wishes to remain anonymous, but made the following points in answer to the question:
TLDR: The Gates funding increase is likely a large counterfactual funding increase but hardly any funding increase in absolute terms
The foundation currently spends ~$9bn per year. This is the outcome of a (public) decision ~3 years ago, to grow spending from ~$6bn p.a. at the time to $9bn, as steady state annual expenditure, over a period of 2-3 years
This new update is only a very small increase in grants. (200Bn over 20 years = 10Bn p.a. = increase of 1Bn / 1/9th only.)
Since the $9bn decision, Warren Buffet withdrew his future contributions (also all public). It became clear through reporting around that that the majority of Foundation contributions to date had actually been Buffet money, not Gates money. So one should have expected a pretty meaningful drop in the $9Bn off the back of that, or Gates to significantly step up giving.
I think this means Buffett donations will continue until his death, and then stop, rather than stopping right now. Buffett seems to announce donations in June each year, so this should be confirmed next month.
So it’s fair to say that this is a very meaningful counterfactual increase vs a world where the Foundation had dropped down to 4/5/6 again.
It is not a meaningful increase in what the world of global health will see at all—esp once you compare the 1Bn increase to the many Bns of reduced spending from the US, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, etc)
I received a DM from someone who wishes to remain anonymous, but made the following points in answer to the question:
TLDR: The Gates funding increase is likely a large counterfactual funding increase but hardly any funding increase in absolute terms
The foundation currently spends ~$9bn per year. This is the outcome of a (public) decision ~3 years ago, to grow spending from ~$6bn p.a. at the time to $9bn, as steady state annual expenditure, over a period of 2-3 years
Announcement to reach $9Bn p.a.: The Gates Foundation aims to spend billions | Bill Gates (2022)
Most recent report (2023), says $7.75Bn: Annual Report 2023
This new update is only a very small increase in grants. (200Bn over 20 years = 10Bn p.a. = increase of 1Bn / 1/9th only.)
Since the $9bn decision, Warren Buffet withdrew his future contributions (also all public). It became clear through reporting around that that the majority of Foundation contributions to date had actually been Buffet money, not Gates money. So one should have expected a pretty meaningful drop in the $9Bn off the back of that, or Gates to significantly step up giving.
Buffett announced a $5.3Bn gift in 2024, but said he would not donate after death: Warren Buffett to end donations to the Gates Foundation after his death, after announcing $5.3b in charity pledge—ABC News
I think this means Buffett donations will continue until his death, and then stop, rather than stopping right now. Buffett seems to announce donations in June each year, so this should be confirmed next month.
Edited to add: This seems to be the correct interpretation.
So it’s fair to say that this is a very meaningful counterfactual increase vs a world where the Foundation had dropped down to 4/5/6 again.
It is not a meaningful increase in what the world of global health will see at all—esp once you compare the 1Bn increase to the many Bns of reduced spending from the US, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, etc)
McKinsey report detailing donation drops: The future of foreign aid: A generational shift | McKinsey (20% drop in ‘Health’ category)