You don’t need a very high credence in e.g. AI x risk for it to be the most likely reason you and your family die
I think this is misleading, especially if you agree with the classic notion of x-risk as excluding events from which recovery is possible. My distribution of credence over event fatality rates is heavily left-skewed, so I would expect far more deaths under the curve between 10% and 99% fatality than between 99% and 100%, and probably more area to the left even under a substantially more even partition of outcomes.
I think this is misleading, especially if you agree with the classic notion of x-risk as excluding events from which recovery is possible. My distribution of credence over event fatality rates is heavily left-skewed, so I would expect far more deaths under the curve between 10% and 99% fatality than between 99% and 100%, and probably more area to the left even under a substantially more even partition of outcomes.