> So actually maybe I agree that for now lots of longtermists should focus on x-risks while there are still lots of relatively cheap wins, but I expect this to be a pretty short-lived thing (maybe a few decades?) and that after that longtermism will have a more distinct set of recommendations.
Yeah, this seems reasonable to me. Max Nadeau also pointed out something similar to me (longtermism is clearly not a crux for supporting GCR work, but also clearly important for how e.g. OP relatively prioritises x risk reduction work vs mere GCR reduction work). I should have been clearer that I agree “not necessary for xrisk” doesn’t mean “not relevant”, and I’m more intending to answer “no” to your (2) than “no” to your (1).
(We might still relatively disagree over your (1) and what your (2) should entail —for example, I’d guess I’m a bit more worried about predicting the effects of our actions than you, and more pessimistic about “general abstract thinking from a longtermist POV” than you are.)
Thanks for commenting!
> So actually maybe I agree that for now lots of longtermists should focus on x-risks while there are still lots of relatively cheap wins, but I expect this to be a pretty short-lived thing (maybe a few decades?) and that after that longtermism will have a more distinct set of recommendations.
Yeah, this seems reasonable to me. Max Nadeau also pointed out something similar to me (longtermism is clearly not a crux for supporting GCR work, but also clearly important for how e.g. OP relatively prioritises x risk reduction work vs mere GCR reduction work). I should have been clearer that I agree “not necessary for xrisk” doesn’t mean “not relevant”, and I’m more intending to answer “no” to your (2) than “no” to your (1).
(We might still relatively disagree over your (1) and what your (2) should entail —for example, I’d guess I’m a bit more worried about predicting the effects of our actions than you, and more pessimistic about “general abstract thinking from a longtermist POV” than you are.)