Hi Charlie, for improvements for long-term markets, I dont have great ideas other than large loans/leverage for betting on these questions and giving skilled political forecasters a lot of money to bet on them.
For resolution criteria, I would suggest a market on trump being president on March 1 2029 without a constitutional amendment. I expect the odds for this to be below 5% (well, interest rate problem). I think the constitutional amendment part is critical here. I dont think its undemocratic for Trump to be elected for a 3rd term, so long as proper procedures are followed here and he wins the election fairly.
Other markets i would suggest would be on imprisonment/murder of political opponents and judges. I would suggest markets like “will at least 4 of the following 10 people be imprisoned or murdered by Dec 31 2028”, etc.
As for my views since the comment chain, my median scenario is worse than it was back then but also my worst ~2.5% scenarios aren’t as bad as they were back then. That is to say, I think things are going badly, worse than I thought they would at the start of the presidency/on election night but also it’s not going as badly as my worst case scenarios (which were really bad).
I want to be clear, I’m extremely unhappy with the Trump presidency thus far. It’s been awful and I feel for many groups of people who have been negatively affected (including Americans and non-Americans, USAID recipients, undocumented workers, tranns people and more). Ive been sad to see many developments and actions of the Trump administration. I also think there are non-authoritarian/dictatorship scenarios I consider to be quite bad. I think the Trump presidency is noticeably worse, on many dimensions than other administrations, especially on things like respecting norms, rhetoric, honesty, and willingness to go after political opponents/other branches of government. That said, im not seeing the kind of things others talk about in terms of being a couple steps before dictatorship.
“I dont think its undemocratic for Trump to be elected for a 3rd term, so long as proper procedures are followed here and he wins the election fairly.”
I can kind of see where you are coming from. I would invite you to consider that sometimes even that sort of thing could be bullshit / tyranny cf. the Enabling Act of 1933.
Also, for resolution criteria:
“Other markets i would suggest would be on imprisonment/murder of political opponents and judges. I would suggest markets like “will at least 4 of the following 10 people be imprisoned or murdered by Dec 31 2028″, etc.”
Do you think specific targets would generally have been easy enough to call in advance for other autocracies / self coups? That seems non-obvious to me?
Hi Charlie, for improvements for long-term markets, I dont have great ideas other than large loans/leverage for betting on these questions and giving skilled political forecasters a lot of money to bet on them.
For resolution criteria, I would suggest a market on trump being president on March 1 2029 without a constitutional amendment. I expect the odds for this to be below 5% (well, interest rate problem). I think the constitutional amendment part is critical here. I dont think its undemocratic for Trump to be elected for a 3rd term, so long as proper procedures are followed here and he wins the election fairly.
Other markets i would suggest would be on imprisonment/murder of political opponents and judges. I would suggest markets like “will at least 4 of the following 10 people be imprisoned or murdered by Dec 31 2028”, etc.
As for my views since the comment chain, my median scenario is worse than it was back then but also my worst ~2.5% scenarios aren’t as bad as they were back then. That is to say, I think things are going badly, worse than I thought they would at the start of the presidency/on election night but also it’s not going as badly as my worst case scenarios (which were really bad).
I want to be clear, I’m extremely unhappy with the Trump presidency thus far. It’s been awful and I feel for many groups of people who have been negatively affected (including Americans and non-Americans, USAID recipients, undocumented workers, tranns people and more). Ive been sad to see many developments and actions of the Trump administration. I also think there are non-authoritarian/dictatorship scenarios I consider to be quite bad. I think the Trump presidency is noticeably worse, on many dimensions than other administrations, especially on things like respecting norms, rhetoric, honesty, and willingness to go after political opponents/other branches of government. That said, im not seeing the kind of things others talk about in terms of being a couple steps before dictatorship.
“I dont think its undemocratic for Trump to be elected for a 3rd term, so long as proper procedures are followed here and he wins the election fairly.”
I can kind of see where you are coming from. I would invite you to consider that sometimes even that sort of thing could be bullshit / tyranny cf. the Enabling Act of 1933.
Also, for resolution criteria:
“Other markets i would suggest would be on imprisonment/murder of political opponents and judges. I would suggest markets like “will at least 4 of the following 10 people be imprisoned or murdered by Dec 31 2028″, etc.”
Do you think specific targets would generally have been easy enough to call in advance for other autocracies / self coups? That seems non-obvious to me?