“Normal” global warming is not x-risk, but possible heavy tail connected with something unknown could be. For example, the observed stability of our climate may be just an “anthropic shadow”, and, in fact, climate transition to the next hotter meta-stable condition is long overdue, and could be triggered by small human actions.
The next meta-stable state may be with median temperature 57C according to the article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4748134/ (“The climate instability is caused by a positive cloud feedback and leads to a new steady state with global-mean sea-surface temperatures above 330 K”)
Because of rising solar luminosity the extinction level global warming is a question of “when”, not “if”, but typically it is estimated to happen hundreds millions years from now.
“Normal” global warming is not x-risk, but possible heavy tail connected with something unknown could be. For example, the observed stability of our climate may be just an “anthropic shadow”, and, in fact, climate transition to the next hotter meta-stable condition is long overdue, and could be triggered by small human actions.
The next meta-stable state may be with median temperature 57C according to the article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4748134/ (“The climate instability is caused by a positive cloud feedback and leads to a new steady state with global-mean sea-surface temperatures above 330 K”)
Because of rising solar luminosity the extinction level global warming is a question of “when”, not “if”, but typically it is estimated to happen hundreds millions years from now.