Congrats to the winners! It’s interesting to see how surprised people are. Of these six, I think only David Wheaton on deceptive alignment was really on my radar. Some other highlights that didn’t get much discussion:
In the author’s words: ‘I, therefore, think of the following post as “if bio anchors influence your timelines, then you should really consider these arguments and, as a consequence, put more weight on short timelines if you agree with them”. I think there are important considerations that are hard to model with bio anchors and therefore also added my personal timelines in the table below for reference.’
Even though Bio Anchors doesn’t particularly influence my timelines, I find Hobbhahn’s thoughtful and systematic engagement worthwhile.
Maybe this question is seen as elementary or settled by “you are made of atoms”, but even so, I think other equilibria could be better explored. This essay is clear and concise, has some novel (to me) points, and could serve as a signpost for further exploration.
On reasoning described by Tom Davidson: “This is significantly closer to Descartes’ meditative contemplation than Hume’s empiricist critique of the limits of reason. Davidson literally describes someone thinking in isolation based on limited data. The assumption is that knowledge of future AI capabilities can be usefully derived through reason, which I think we should challenge.”
Beard doesn’t mean to pick on Davidson, but I really think his methods deserve more skepticism. Even before specific critiques, I’m generally pessimistic about how informative models like Davidson’s can be. I was also very surprised by some of his comments on the 80,000 Hours podcast (including those highlighted by Beard). Otherwise, Beard’s recommendations are pretty vague but agreeable.
Congrats to the winners! It’s interesting to see how surprised people are. Of these six, I think only David Wheaton on deceptive alignment was really on my radar. Some other highlights that didn’t get much discussion:
Marius Hobbhahn’s Disagreements with Bio Anchors that lead to shorter timelines (1 comment)
In the author’s words: ‘I, therefore, think of the following post as “if bio anchors influence your timelines, then you should really consider these arguments and, as a consequence, put more weight on short timelines if you agree with them”. I think there are important considerations that are hard to model with bio anchors and therefore also added my personal timelines in the table below for reference.’
Even though Bio Anchors doesn’t particularly influence my timelines, I find Hobbhahn’s thoughtful and systematic engagement worthwhile.
Kiel Brennan-Marquez’s Cooperation, Avoidance, and Indifference: Alternate Futures for Misaligned AGI (1 comment)
Maybe this question is seen as elementary or settled by “you are made of atoms”, but even so, I think other equilibria could be better explored. This essay is clear and concise, has some novel (to me) points, and could serve as a signpost for further exploration.
Matt Beard’s AI Doom and David Hume: A Defence of Empiricism in AI Safety (6 comments)
On reasoning described by Tom Davidson: “This is significantly closer to Descartes’ meditative contemplation than Hume’s empiricist critique of the limits of reason. Davidson literally describes someone thinking in isolation based on limited data. The assumption is that knowledge of future AI capabilities can be usefully derived through reason, which I think we should challenge.”
Beard doesn’t mean to pick on Davidson, but I really think his methods deserve more skepticism. Even before specific critiques, I’m generally pessimistic about how informative models like Davidson’s can be. I was also very surprised by some of his comments on the 80,000 Hours podcast (including those highlighted by Beard). Otherwise, Beard’s recommendations are pretty vague but agreeable.