Yeah, I think the interest rates post is all but entirely refuted immediately by the obvious argument (the one in your rebuttal) and it both confuses me and slightly irritates me to see it regarded so highly.
If anything I think a rebuttal should win the contest, because it would present what I guess is a nontrivial observation about how information-free the yield curve is in this context, and so serves as a correction to people who frankly aren’t trading-literate who would spend energy trying to infer things about TAI timelines from securities prices
“Refuted” feels overly strong to me. The essay says that market participants don’t think TAGI is coming, and those market participants have strong financial incentive to be correct, which feels unambiguously correct to me. So either TAGI isn’t coming soon, or else a lot of people with a lot of money on the line are wrong. They might well be wrong, but their stance is certainly some form of evidence, and evidence in the direction of no TAGI. Certainly the evidence isn’t bulletproof, condsidering the recent mispricings of NVIDIA and other semi stocks.
In my own essay, I elaborated on the same point using prices set by more-informed insiders: e.g., valuations and hiring by Anthropic/DeepMind/etc., which also seem to imply that TAGI isn’t coming soon. If they have a 10% chance of capturing 10% of the value for 10 years of doubling the world economy, that’s like $10T. And yet investment expenditures and hiring and valuations are nowhere near that scale. The fact that Google has more people working on ads than TAGI implies that they think TAGI is far off. (Or, more accurately, that marginal investments would not accelerate TAGI timelines or market share.)
It did not occur to me to enter the rebuttal into the contest, I doubt anyone else entered one either. In hindsight, given the original entry won, I regret not doing so.
Yeah, I think the interest rates post is all but entirely refuted immediately by the obvious argument (the one in your rebuttal) and it both confuses me and slightly irritates me to see it regarded so highly.
If anything I think a rebuttal should win the contest, because it would present what I guess is a nontrivial observation about how information-free the yield curve is in this context, and so serves as a correction to people who frankly aren’t trading-literate who would spend energy trying to infer things about TAI timelines from securities prices
“Refuted” feels overly strong to me. The essay says that market participants don’t think TAGI is coming, and those market participants have strong financial incentive to be correct, which feels unambiguously correct to me. So either TAGI isn’t coming soon, or else a lot of people with a lot of money on the line are wrong. They might well be wrong, but their stance is certainly some form of evidence, and evidence in the direction of no TAGI. Certainly the evidence isn’t bulletproof, condsidering the recent mispricings of NVIDIA and other semi stocks.
In my own essay, I elaborated on the same point using prices set by more-informed insiders: e.g., valuations and hiring by Anthropic/DeepMind/etc., which also seem to imply that TAGI isn’t coming soon. If they have a 10% chance of capturing 10% of the value for 10 years of doubling the world economy, that’s like $10T. And yet investment expenditures and hiring and valuations are nowhere near that scale. The fact that Google has more people working on ads than TAGI implies that they think TAGI is far off. (Or, more accurately, that marginal investments would not accelerate TAGI timelines or market share.)
It did not occur to me to enter the rebuttal into the contest, I doubt anyone else entered one either. In hindsight, given the original entry won, I regret not doing so.