When you make a recommendation that people’s silence is based on “sound legal reasoning” you are implicitly claiming that you know the expected cost of the actions, and that the cost outweighs the benefits.
Yes, getting a robust estimate that is airtight is going to be hard, but in the OP you are already making a claim that you have an estimate of the relevant costs, and you should be able to quantify that estimate, at least with error bounds that could potentially span one or two orders of magnitude.
If you can’t actually put any expected cost to your estimate, or you are genuinely so uncertain about the actual cost here that you can’t give any number, then I don’t see how the reasoning in the OP checks out, since in that case it seems quite plausible that people are making a mistake by overestimating the cost, and the benefits actually hugely outweigh the costs.
Like, I understand that sometimes an estimate can be based on personal experience and intuitions whose generators are hard to elicit, but my sense is in this situation, if you are confident in the costs outweighing the benefits, then you should be able to produce some kind of estimate here (though I am not saying that this is a total universal, a basketball player can be confident they can make a shot, with very little ability to explain why they think that).
I would definitely be up for it! Happy to coordinate a good time via DM. Will also send you my phone number that you can call any time in the next few hours.
When you make a recommendation that people’s silence is based on “sound legal reasoning” you are implicitly claiming that you know the expected cost of the actions, and that the cost outweighs the benefits.
Yes, getting a robust estimate that is airtight is going to be hard, but in the OP you are already making a claim that you have an estimate of the relevant costs, and you should be able to quantify that estimate, at least with error bounds that could potentially span one or two orders of magnitude.
If you can’t actually put any expected cost to your estimate, or you are genuinely so uncertain about the actual cost here that you can’t give any number, then I don’t see how the reasoning in the OP checks out, since in that case it seems quite plausible that people are making a mistake by overestimating the cost, and the benefits actually hugely outweigh the costs.
Like, I understand that sometimes an estimate can be based on personal experience and intuitions whose generators are hard to elicit, but my sense is in this situation, if you are confident in the costs outweighing the benefits, then you should be able to produce some kind of estimate here (though I am not saying that this is a total universal, a basketball player can be confident they can make a shot, with very little ability to explain why they think that).
Does it make sense to have a quick chat about this in realtime? I’d be open to that and think it would be more productive.
I would definitely be up for it! Happy to coordinate a good time via DM. Will also send you my phone number that you can call any time in the next few hours.