In summary: It seems to me that strong longtermists are committed to adopting beliefs which would allow for large futures, over beliefs which are most likely to be correct, at least to the extent that these beliefs influence their actions (they should act as if they believe these unlikely things, even though privately they may not).
This seems like a strong reductio ad absurdum argument against strong longtermism to me.
I’d be interested in your thoughts on an argument I once tried sharing on the forum here: https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​RCmgGp2nmoWFcRwdn/​​should-strong-longtermists-really-want-to-minimize
In summary: It seems to me that strong longtermists are committed to adopting beliefs which would allow for large futures, over beliefs which are most likely to be correct, at least to the extent that these beliefs influence their actions (they should act as if they believe these unlikely things, even though privately they may not).
This seems like a strong reductio ad absurdum argument against strong longtermism to me.