Look out in the world and you’ll see lots of people excited about things that don’t work or don’t do what they say they’ll do. Anyone can say they’re evidence-backed etc. On outside view, if you only spend a few minutes on your donations each year, how much of the optimization pressure influencing your donations should you expect was marketing skill on the part of the recipient or their patron, vs selecting for actual impact?
Look out in the world and you’ll see lots of people excited about things that don’t work or don’t do what they say they’ll do. Anyone can say they’re evidence-backed etc. On outside view, if you only spend a few minutes on your donations each year, how much of the optimization pressure influencing your donations should you expect was marketing skill on the part of the recipient or their patron, vs selecting for actual impact?