I think that bipartisanship is a terrible strategy that is completely disconnected from reality right now, the focus needs to be on impeaching Trump and Vance if we want to have any hope for AI regs, restoring USAID or to save ourselves from being robbed blind by corruption. Trump still denies global warming after years of CO2 caused temperature increases and disasters. He has no regrets for USAID and global health cuts that have led to the spread of Ebola and screw worms. He is never going to care about speculative AI risks and is obviously not either a rational actor or someone concerned by the welfare of others.
Trump will be President until 2029. He will not sign AI safety legislation passed on Democratic party lines. Overriding his veto (or an impeachment conviction) would require 1⁄3 of GOP senators to cross party lines, which will never happen. Making AI safety partisan would ensure we have a 0% chance of federal AI safety legislation until at least 2029. Trump’s “paced the frontier” before by limiting Fable access when it was in his interest, and he may do it again if he perceives it to be in his interest. I understand your frustration with Trump, but there is nothing to gain and a lot to lose from partisanship here.
I would say the opposite. There is nothing to gain and everything to lose from non partisanship here.
The 1⁄3 of Republicans in the Senate number is not fixed it is dependent on the midterms. If by some miracle Dems won every seat that is up for grabs they would get 67 seats and be able to impeach Trump with only their own votes. A far more likely scenario is to get less than that but be able to get Republican votes for impeachment, every seat matters for that. The difference between 50-50, 51-49, 52-48 results are all massive.
If impeachment is unreachable bills can be passed through vetoes, again at the 2⁄3 margin.
Convincing swing Republican senators to vote for things that we want such as a restoration of USAID and AI regs doesn’t necessarily benefit from bipartisanship either. It is more important to have intimidating voter and $ power. This requires punishing Republicans and Trump for violating all of the values that we hold dear, so that they can learn that that is a bad electoral strategy.
Always being nonpartisan regardless of the actions of parties is identical to always folding in an iterated game of The Prisoner’s Dilemma. This will get us killed. We need to adopt a tit for tat strategy and find a way to be a credible threat at the ballot box or the pro authoritarian, accelerationist, pro pandemic side will win.
So I don’t see how doubling down on Democratic Party partisanship gets us anywhere.
Remember that in the US, Independents are much more common than either Democrats or Republicans.
The Trump stuff may all be true. Nonetheless, getting Trump impeached would basically need to be a bipartisan effort.
We might be able to win with Democrats + Independents. But the way to win the Independents, in my mind, is to make arguments which could, at least in theory, persuade Republicans.
On that poll I would agree with Brian Schatz reply “wait a week.” The voters are not aware of the different parties actual views on AI, but right now Dems ARE heavily winning the polls for the midterms and Trump is polling terribly, so he is not someone we want to associate with for the sake of general popularity.
Yes, it’s important to make arguments that can convince independents and Republicans, I certainly agree with that. This just can’t extend to ignoring the fact that our single biggest lever right now BY FAR is the midterms and getting the people who support autocracy, the elimination of USAID, almost zero pandemic or climate change prevention, and zero AI regulation out.
Doing that almost certainly requires conversion and requires arguments suited for people who previously voted for Republicans, but it also requires pointing towards Republican elected as the catastrophe they are and not associating ourselves with them or aiding them.
I think that bipartisanship is a terrible strategy that is completely disconnected from reality right now, the focus needs to be on impeaching Trump and Vance if we want to have any hope for AI regs, restoring USAID or to save ourselves from being robbed blind by corruption. Trump still denies global warming after years of CO2 caused temperature increases and disasters. He has no regrets for USAID and global health cuts that have led to the spread of Ebola and screw worms. He is never going to care about speculative AI risks and is obviously not either a rational actor or someone concerned by the welfare of others.
Trump will be President until 2029. He will not sign AI safety legislation passed on Democratic party lines. Overriding his veto (or an impeachment conviction) would require 1⁄3 of GOP senators to cross party lines, which will never happen. Making AI safety partisan would ensure we have a 0% chance of federal AI safety legislation until at least 2029. Trump’s “paced the frontier” before by limiting Fable access when it was in his interest, and he may do it again if he perceives it to be in his interest. I understand your frustration with Trump, but there is nothing to gain and a lot to lose from partisanship here.
I would say the opposite. There is nothing to gain and everything to lose from non partisanship here.
The 1⁄3 of Republicans in the Senate number is not fixed it is dependent on the midterms. If by some miracle Dems won every seat that is up for grabs they would get 67 seats and be able to impeach Trump with only their own votes. A far more likely scenario is to get less than that but be able to get Republican votes for impeachment, every seat matters for that. The difference between 50-50, 51-49, 52-48 results are all massive.
If impeachment is unreachable bills can be passed through vetoes, again at the 2⁄3 margin.
Convincing swing Republican senators to vote for things that we want such as a restoration of USAID and AI regs doesn’t necessarily benefit from bipartisanship either. It is more important to have intimidating voter and $ power. This requires punishing Republicans and Trump for violating all of the values that we hold dear, so that they can learn that that is a bad electoral strategy.
Always being nonpartisan regardless of the actions of parties is identical to always folding in an iterated game of The Prisoner’s Dilemma. This will get us killed. We need to adopt a tit for tat strategy and find a way to be a credible threat at the ballot box or the pro authoritarian, accelerationist, pro pandemic side will win.
Apparently AI is not even a winning issue for Democrats right now:
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/2099871668411805768
So I don’t see how doubling down on Democratic Party partisanship gets us anywhere.
Remember that in the US, Independents are much more common than either Democrats or Republicans.
The Trump stuff may all be true. Nonetheless, getting Trump impeached would basically need to be a bipartisan effort.
We might be able to win with Democrats + Independents. But the way to win the Independents, in my mind, is to make arguments which could, at least in theory, persuade Republicans.
https://x.com/gmiller/status/2099902172075078006
On that poll I would agree with Brian Schatz reply “wait a week.” The voters are not aware of the different parties actual views on AI, but right now Dems ARE heavily winning the polls for the midterms and Trump is polling terribly, so he is not someone we want to associate with for the sake of general popularity.
Yes, it’s important to make arguments that can convince independents and Republicans, I certainly agree with that. This just can’t extend to ignoring the fact that our single biggest lever right now BY FAR is the midterms and getting the people who support autocracy, the elimination of USAID, almost zero pandemic or climate change prevention, and zero AI regulation out.
Doing that almost certainly requires conversion and requires arguments suited for people who previously voted for Republicans, but it also requires pointing towards Republican elected as the catastrophe they are and not associating ourselves with them or aiding them.