FWIW, I think specific changes here are unlikely to be cruxy for the decisions we make.
[Edited to add: I think if we could know with certainty that AGI was coming in 202X for a specific X, then that would be decision-relevant for certain decisions we’d face. But a shift of a few years for the 10% mark seems less decision relevant]
I think it’s super decision-relevant if the shift leads you to 10%(+) in 2023 or 2024. Basically I think we can no longer rely on having enough time for alignment research to bear fruit, so we should be shifting the bulk of resources toward directly buying more time (i.e. pushing for a global moratorium on AGI).
FWIW, I think specific changes here are unlikely to be cruxy for the decisions we make.
[Edited to add: I think if we could know with certainty that AGI was coming in 202X for a specific X, then that would be decision-relevant for certain decisions we’d face. But a shift of a few years for the 10% mark seems less decision relevant]
I think it’s super decision-relevant if the shift leads you to 10%(+) in 2023 or 2024. Basically I think we can no longer rely on having enough time for alignment research to bear fruit, so we should be shifting the bulk of resources toward directly buying more time (i.e. pushing for a global moratorium on AGI).