Speaking personally, I think there is a possibility of money becoming obsolete, but I also think there’s a possibility of money mattering more, as (for instance) AI might allow for an easier ability to turn money into valuable labor. In my mind, it’s hard to know how this all shakes out on net.
I think there are reasons for expecting the value of spending to be approximately logarithmic with total spending for many domains, and spending on research seems to fit this general pattern pretty well, so I suspect that it’s prudent to generally plan to spread spending around a fair bit over the years.
I also just want to note that I wouldn’t expect this whole question to affect behavior of the LTFF much, as we decide what grants to fund, but we don’t make plans to save/invest money for future years anyways (though, of course, it could affect behavior of potential donors to the LTFF).
Speaking personally, I think there is a possibility of money becoming obsolete, but I also think there’s a possibility of money mattering more, as (for instance) AI might allow for an easier ability to turn money into valuable labor. In my mind, it’s hard to know how this all shakes out on net.
I think there are reasons for expecting the value of spending to be approximately logarithmic with total spending for many domains, and spending on research seems to fit this general pattern pretty well, so I suspect that it’s prudent to generally plan to spread spending around a fair bit over the years.
I also just want to note that I wouldn’t expect this whole question to affect behavior of the LTFF much, as we decide what grants to fund, but we don’t make plans to save/invest money for future years anyways (though, of course, it could affect behavior of potential donors to the LTFF).